Is It Possible to Reach an Understanding with Lukashenka? An Expert Discussion

Is reconciliation possible between the protest-minded and loyalist parts of Belarusian society, as the writer Artur Klinau calls for?

Is it worth it, and is it possible, to return to the times before 2020?

Does the Belarusian people remain a subject of the political process?

What is the alternative to reconciliation?

These questions are discussed by Yury Drakakhrust on the Svaboda Premium channel with Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute, and Vadim Možejko, analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies.

Kazakevich
The reaction to Klinau’s interview was driven more by emotion than by an analytical approach.

Klinau’s option is reconciliation, a compromise for the sake of independence.

This option is unrealistic; throughout this year the authorities have demonstrated that they do not want any dialogue.

The period of 2015–2020, which Klinau considers “golden,” is seen by the authorities as a mistake.

In the authorities’ view, liberalization and the creation of civic initiatives undermined the regime.

The strengthening of Western influence, in their view, contributed to the protests.

The authorities may stop the repressions only when they cease to see their opponents as a political problem.

Klinau’s scheme presupposes that people forget about the violence, and sincerely forget it; political prisoners write letters of repentance and promise not to engage in politics.

But within the authorities there is too much fear of a repeat of 2020.

Many of them will not believe that the opposition has stopped, in their terminology, “striving for power,” or that the West is not planning to “undermine the constitutional order of Belarus.”

All such options presuppose trust between the sides.

This is something that Belarus, in principle, does not have.

Read in full (https://www.svaboda.org/a/31618183.html)