Publications · 16 March 2022

What Belarusians Should Prepare for After Lukashenka’s Departure

Are the democratic forces ready to take power if Lukashenka’s regime collapses under the burden of war?

How likely is such a scenario, and what awaits Belarusians during the transition period?

Experts discussed this on the talk show “Plan B” (https://belsat.eu/ru/program/plan-b-ru/).

The program features Alyaksandr Dabravolski, adviser to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya on domestic policy; Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute; Pavel Matsukevich, senior researcher at the Center for New Ideas; and activist Ilya Danilov.

We also broadcast an address by Zianon Pazniak to Belarusians.

The war in Ukraine, despite the tragedy of the situation, is a chance for Belarus to rid itself of dictatorship and restore sovereignty.

But this may come at a high cost for Belarusians.
“We will still have to fight for our independence; everything is still ahead, and everything will be very difficult.

Much more difficult than in 2020,” says Alyaksandr Dabravolski. “It is unlikely that anyone will give us such a chance for independence as we had in 1991, without great strain and great struggle.”

The opposition is preparing for the possibility that the window of opportunity after the fall of the regime may remain open for only a very short time, and therefore is already thinking through steps to use the situation effectively.

What will these steps be?

Where will the new government begin, and how will this affect ordinary Belarusians?

And is there hope for a peaceful transfer of power from Lukashenka to the democratic forces?

Also in the program:
Lukashenka’s finale.

What scenarios are being considered for the usurper’s departure from power?

Dialogue between the democratic forces and representatives of Lukashenka’s regime.

Under what conditions is it possible?

Lustration.

What should be done after the regime’s collapse with security officers and officials who repressed their own people?

The split among Belarusians.

How divided are Belarusians today, and can the split in society be overcome?

Watch the talk show “Plan B” on the YouTube channel “Belsat News” (https://www.youtube.com/user/ibelsat/videos), in the “Belsat Smart” app for Smart TVs, on mobile devices running iOS (https://apps.apple.com/by/app/belsatsmart/id1491036636) and Android (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=eu.belsatlive&hl=ru&gl=US), as well as on air (http://belsat.eu/online/) on Belsat and on the program page (https://belsat.eu/ru/program/plan-b-ru/).