The “Trade Union Case”: The Authorities Became Afraid of Unrest at Enterprises Because of the Crisis

Is there a logic to political repression, and what is it?
On 19 April, an attack took place against the independent trade union movement.

Searches were carried out at the office of the Belarusian Congress of Democratic Trade Unions (BKDP) and at the offices of its member organizations, the Belarusian Free Trade Union (SPB), the Free Trade Union of Metalworkers (SPM), and the Belarusian Trade Union of Radio-Electronic Industry Workers (REP), in Minsk and the regions, as well as in the private homes of trade union leaders and activists.

The exact number of arrested trade union activists is not yet known, but at least 14 people are out of contact.

Alexander Yaroshuk, Siarhei Antusevich, Mikalai Sharakh, Henadz Fiadynich, and others are being held in the KGB pre-trial detention center.

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts what the logic of repression in Belarus is.

Why were the leaders of the independent trade union movement arrested, although before that they had been allowed to work legally?
“We can expect manifestations of discontent at enterprises to grow”
Director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science Andrei Kazakevich noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that he does not see a single logic in the mass repressions.

Photo: dw.com
“We do not yet have information about the reasons for the detention of the leaders of the trade union movement that would allow us to explain what happened with confidence.

Perhaps this is the implementation of the authorities’ wishes to intensify preventive work; Lukashenka recently made statements on this topic.

We can expect manifestations of discontent at enterprises to grow: the economic crisis is expanding, and sanctions are beginning to take effect,” Kazakevich believes.

Why do trials of some political prisoners take place fairly quickly, while others spend around a year, or even longer, in pre-trial detention without trial?
“Each criminal case needs to be examined separately.

Perhaps the issue is that some people are detained preventively, and then the authorities spend a long time deciding what to do with them and what sentence to give,” Kazakevich did not rule out.

Why were independent public organizations liquidated en masse in Belarus, but not opposition political parties?
“Perhaps the issue lies in the authorities’ comprehensive approach.

On the one hand, they will need to clear the existing field, and on the other hand, strengthen the existing pro-government parties and perhaps even create a party of power.

These questions need to be resolved by the 2024 parliamentary elections, which may be why the authorities decided that there is still time.

Moreover, political parties are not conducting noticeable activity: many activists are either imprisoned or outside the country,” Kazakevich noted.

Does the political scientist see any chance that, in the coming year, the story of mass repression in Belarus may end?
“So far there are no signs of this.

The release of political prisoners carries risks for the regime: it would show the difficult position in which the authorities find themselves, and the release of prominent political prisoners could inspire society.

The political situation in Belarus remains unstable,” Kazakevich said.

Read in full (https://udf.name/news/sobytie/242485-delo-profsojuzov-vlasti-ispugalis-volnenij-na-predprijatijah-iz-za-krizisa.html)