The response to the recognition of the LNR and DNR: Western sanctions and Lukashenka’s “understanding”

The Lukashenka regime reacted “with understanding and respect” to Russia’s recognition of the independence of the DNR and LNR.

A statement with this wording was published by the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

For such “respect”, economic cooperation with Ukraine is under threat; in addition, Belarus may also be affected by the consequences of the sanctions that Russia will face.

Less than an hour ago, the European Union adopted a new package of restrictions: 351 State Duma deputies and another 27 individuals and legal entities were placed under sanctions.

The dollar rose by 7 kopecks, the euro by 6.

Some Belarusians headed to exchange offices: what if this is only the beginning of the fall of the Belarusian ruble?

It followed the Russian ruble after Putin recognized the independence of the so-called LNR and DNR and sent Russian troops there.

The ruble will regain its lost positions, because Putin, it seems, has abandoned the worst-case scenario — a military campaign against Ukraine, believes Leu Lvowski, senior research fellow at the BEROC center:
“The market will receive this gradual signal, and the market will understand that the worst has already happened.

On the other hand, another round of sanctions awaits us.

And for Belarus, even more important than for Russia, is Ukraine’s reaction to Belarusian involvement and to its statements.”

Ukraine is among Belarus’s top five trading partners and is the main market for exports of bitumen and petroleum products.

Recognizing the self-proclaimed republics in Donbas after Putin could have put an end to trade.

The Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to choose its words carefully:
“We perceive with respect and understanding the decision of the Russian side to recognize the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

This step by Russia has not only a political but also a serious human, humanitarian dimension, taking into account the number of Russian citizens who live in these territories and have endured hardship for almost eight years.”

Uladzimir Makei’s ministry places responsibility for the rise in tensions in Eastern Europe on Western countries.

Meanwhile, more and more military equipment is entering Belarus across the eastern border.

Yesterday and today, columns of the Russian Guard with painted-over identifying marks were spotted near the towns of Khoiniki, Rahachou and Naroulia in southern Belarus.

The yellow-green coloring of the armored personnel carriers is characteristic of units from the North Caucasus.

Belarusians are asking: are they here for a long time?
“Soldiers have to be stationed somewhere, equipment repaired somewhere, training grounds and bases created… If we are talking about a permanent, not temporary, presence of Russian troops, then a decision must be made to create some kind of military base.

It will have to be built… Most likely, this will depend not on the opinion of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, but on the dynamics of relations between Russia and the West,” believes Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute.

Even the temporary presence of Russian troops and the conflict they have ignited limits Belarus’s sovereignty, Andrei Kazakevich believes:
“Say, if there are Russian troops on your territory, you will increasingly depend on Russia’s relations with the West and Russia’s relations with Ukraine.

Because if Russia worsens relations, you fall into the orbit as a territory from which some kind of military operation can be carried out.”

Read in full (https://belsat.eu/in-focus/22-02-2022-adkaz-na-pryznanne-lnr-i-dnr-sanktsyi-zahadu-i-razumenne-lukashenki/)