The effect of Minsk’s anti-Western sanctions may be the opposite, says Kazakevich

The fifth package of Western sanctions against Minsk is effectively a continuation of the policy that was laid down by previous sanctions packages, of which the fourth was the most painful.

This view was expressed to Politring’s correspondent by Andrei Kazakevich, doctor (PhD) of political science and director of the Political Sphere Institute.
“The fifth package expands sanctions against Belarusian officials, but such restrictions are symbolic in nature.

A number of tourism-sector companies were also added to the list, but the most significant damage may be caused by the inclusion of Belavia, Belarusneft, and Grodno Azot,” he noted.

At the same time, Kazakevich believes that the precise economic effect of the sanctions is difficult to predict, since it will depend heavily on the ability of companies to find new sales markets, sources of raw materials and technologies, as well as mechanisms for circumventing sanctions.
“The damage is unlikely to be critical, but it may amount to hundreds of millions of dollars.

So the bravado of the Belarusian authorities is unlikely to be justified; the problems will be serious,” he added.

Although the government of Belarus, and later the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, have already announced possible retaliatory measures against Western sanctions, Kazakevich drew attention to the fact that the Belarusian authorities have practically no mechanisms or resources for influencing the EU and the United States.
“As stated, Belarusian restrictive measures will concern the compilation of a blacklist of citizens, goods, and a number of non-public steps.

The first measure is rather symbolic, since very few EU and US citizens are connected with Belarus.

Restrictions on agricultural products introduced by the government may affect individual EU companies, especially those from neighboring countries (Poland and Lithuania), but the Belarusian market is small, and the damage is unlikely to be significant.

Moreover, such measures may lead to rising food prices in Belarus,” the expert pointed out.

Thus, Kazakevich believes, the effect of such measures may be the opposite, as happened previously.
“If we recall, at the beginning of the year the authorities imposed sanctions against the car manufacturer Skoda, and then it turned out that cars for the Belarusian market are assembled mainly in Russia, meaning that the sanctions essentially affected Russian companies,” he explained.

As for non-public measures, in Kazakevich’s view, these may include weakening control over drug trafficking and smuggling at the borders between Belarus and the EU (the Belarusian authorities have already spoken about this), pressure on European business in Belarus, strengthening Russia’s military presence in the country, and so on.
“But the opportunities to exert pressure on the EU and the United States in this way are rather limited.

Before the adoption of the fifth sanctions package, there were also rumors about the possible expulsion from Belarus of part of the diplomatic corps and a further reduction in the activities of organizations and projects connected with the EU.

But so far there is no information that such measures will be taken,” he concluded.

Source (https://politring.com/country/49127-effekt-ot-antizapadnyh-sankciy-minska-mozhet-byt-obratnym-kazakevich.html)