“Putin would like China or India to make such statements, but for now there is only Lukashenka”

How have relations between the rulers of Belarus and Russia changed?
— It does not seem to me that during the latest meeting between Lukashenka and Putin (https://gazetaby.com/post/dmitriev-pochemu-lukashenko-peredaet-sensacionnuyu/184646/) the issue of sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine was raised, said Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute, in a brief comment to Salidarnasts. — Probably this made sense when the offensive on Kyiv was under way in the first days of the war and the Russians could hope that they would achieve some turning point, and such military assistance might have been necessary for them.

After Russian troops effectively withdrew from northern Ukraine, Belarusian forces were in any case insufficient for a serious attack (https://gazetaby.com/post/latushko-belorusskaya-armiya-ne-boesposobna-dazhe-/184556/).

But it is clear that it is still very important for Russia that Belarus remain a partner, an ally in this operation, and that it support Russia in everything on the foreign policy stage.

In particular, for example, on issues such as the tragedy in Bucha, when Lukashenka also stated that all of this was fake.
— And where could the version about the British have come from?
— I have no theory.

Perhaps he was impressed by Johnson’s trip to Kyiv, perhaps something else.

In any case, I think this story about “British intelligence services” was staged.

And for Russia the very fact of such support is important (https://gazetaby.com/post/klaskovskij-ton-zadaval-putin-lukashenko-podygryva/184639/).

Of course, they would like China or India to make such statements, but for now there is only Lukashenka.

In general, I think that if Russia very much needed Belarusian troops to participate in this operation, this would have been agreed in advance.

And I admit that in those first days, when there was a sense of rapid success, with preliminary agreements with Putin, Lukashenka would hardly have resisted.

Especially if Putin had promised in advance to compensate all losses from sanctions, and had offered as a trophy, for example, part of Ukrainian territory or some economic resources.

Apparently, Russia did not initially insist; it probably believed it could cope on its own.
— That is, the factor that Belarusian soldiers might behave unpredictably does not play a major role?
— I think the likelihood that Belarusian troops would turn their weapons against their own authorities is extremely small.

But it is real that many military personnel would resign and would try in various ways to avoid being sent.

As is the fact that this would provoke a negative reaction in society.

As we see, even rumours about the possible deployment of our troops provoke a negative reaction (https://gazetaby.com/post/usov-90-belorusskix-voennyx-eto-soldaty-srochnoj-s/184237/).

Therefore, a decision to send them could well become an irritant within the army itself, if not a destructive factor.

It is much harder for Putin to insist now on the introduction of Belarusian troops than at the beginning, when the failure of the campaign was not so obvious.

The morale of Belarusian troops (https://gazetaby.com/post/putin-xotel-by-chtoby-podobnye-zayavleniya-delal-k/184656/post/mozhno-byt-skol-ugodno-prorossijskim-lyubit-lukash/184262/) is highly questionable.

And this may affect the domestic political situation in the country as a whole.
— Then what could the rulers have discussed during another meeting?
— It was a demonstration of allied relations, a demonstration of support on all issues.

Putin said that he would like Belarus to return to the negotiation process.

Perhaps he did this at Lukashenka’s request, perhaps on his own, out of gratitude for unconditional support (https://gazetaby.com/post/maczukevich-putin-vpolne-mozhet-vzyat-lukashenko-s/184621/) for the position on the tragedy in Bucha.

At the same time, he decided to return Belarus to the international agenda, since it had somehow become lost there; it had stopped being perceived as an independent subject.

One of the options proposed by Russia is that Belarus may act as a “guarantor of Ukraine’s security.”

At the same time, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as we know, said that it wants security guarantees for Belarus itself from these negotiations.
— And how might Ukraine view all these wishes?
— The Ukrainian side, judging by official statements, sees no point in any Belarusian participation in the negotiation process.

Belarus cannot act as a neutral participant (https://gazetaby.com/post/kak-mozhet-razvivatsya-vojna-dalshe-i-kak-v-ukrain/184648/).

It is a dependent state, a participant in the aggression.

For Ukraine, Belarus simply repeats everything Russia says.

Belarus has no potential to be a guarantor of anything.

It cannot even guarantee the absence of foreign troops on its own territory.

What guarantees are we talking about?

In addition, if this is a multilateral agreement, another problem will necessarily arise — the question of how legitimate Lukashenka is at all to represent Belarus as a country.

And this is a very serious question.
— The democratic forces of Belarus are cautiously promoting the idea that if anyone should participate in negotiations, it should be their representatives.

How realistic is this?
— This is also extremely unlikely, because again it is unclear what this would give Ukraine.

Second, the same issue of legitimacy that Lukashenka has will arise.

Only now Russia will be able to say that it does not recognise any of the democratic leaders.

They really do not have any official status, even a formal one, necessary for participation in negotiations.
— Returning to the subject of relations between the rulers of Belarus and Russia.

Earlier, many said that they had no special respect for each other.

How have their relations (https://gazetaby.com/post/peskov-nazval-unikalnymi-otnosheniya-putina-i-luka/184439/) changed recently?
— It seems to me that they still have no particular reason to trust each other.

But it is obvious that over the past year and a half their relations have become closer (https://gazetaby.com/post/putin-xotel-by-chtoby-podobnye-zayavleniya-delal-k/184656/post/shrajbman-zavisimost-i-nuzhda-v-loyalnom-putine-dl/184629/).

One may recall that the first meetings after August 2020 were still quite tense, but by the summer of 2021 the tone of their relations had become completely different.

And many Russian experts note that Lukashenka has almost entered Putin’s “inner circle.” READ ALSO Lukashenka was openly trolled in Putin’s presence — on the verge of mockery (https://gazetaby.com/post/lukashenko-otkrovenno-potrollili-v-prisutstvii-put/184651/)
This does not mean that there are no problems between them.

I repeat: they have no reason to trust each other, but they have become closer, their rhetoric has become similar, their agenda has become similar, their policy has become similar.

All this happened gradually during 2021.

And when confrontation between Russia and the West began to grow in connection with emerging information about a possible invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities moved to absolute support for Russia.

Communication during this period, from mid-autumn last year, became even closer and coincided on many points.

In this respect, 2021 was characteristic.

In official communication and ideology, the Belarusian authorities fully shifted to a Russo-centric concept.

And what we see now is the finished product of the processes that took place throughout last year.https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?src=sp&u=https%3A%2F%2Fgazetaby.com%2Fpost%2Fputin-xotel-by-chtoby-podobnye-zayavleniya-delal-k%2F184656%2Fhttps://t.me/share/url?url=https://gazetaby.com/post/putin-xotel-by-chtoby-podobnye-zayavleniya-delal-k/184656/&text=%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%86%D1%8C.%20%D0%93%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%20%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%83%D1%81%D0%B8.%20%D0%A7%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B9%D1%82%D0%B5%20%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D1%88%D0%B5%20%D0%B8%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE%20%D0%B8%20%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%B6%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE%20%D0%B2%20%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%20@gazetabyhttps://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgazetaby.com%2Fpost%2Fputin-xotel-by-chtoby-podobnye-zayavleniya-delal-k%2F184656%2F&text=%C2%AB%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD%20%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%20%D0%B1%D1%8B%2C%20%D1%87%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%8B%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%8F%D0%B2%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F%20%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BB%20%D0%9A%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8%20%D0%98%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B8%D1%8F%2C%20%D0%BD%D0%BE%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%20%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%C2%BB%20-%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BBi%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%86%D1%8Chttps://vk.com/share.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgazetaby.com%2Fpost%2Fputin-xotel-by-chtoby-podobnye-zayavleniya-delal-k%2F184656%2F&title=%C2%AB%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD%20%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%20%D0%B1%D1%8B%2C%20%D1%87%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%8B%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%8F%D0%B2%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F%20%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BB%20%D0%9A%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8%20%D0%98%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B8%D1%8F%2C%20%D0%BD%D0%BE%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%20%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%C2%BB%20-%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BBi%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%86%D1%8Chttps://connect.ok.ru/offer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgazetaby.com%2Fpost%2Fputin-xotel-by-chtoby-podobnye-zayavleniya-delal-k%2F184656%2F&title=%C2%AB%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD%20%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%20%D0%B1%D1%8B%2C%20%D1%87%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%8B%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B5%20%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%8F%D0%B2%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F%20%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BB%20%D0%9A%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B9%20%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8%20%D0%98%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B8%D1%8F%2C%20%D0%BD%D0%BE%20%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%B5%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%20%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%20%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE%C2%BB%20-%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BBi%D0%B4%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%86%D1%8C
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