Political Scientist: A Humanitarian Catastrophe with Dozens of Deaths Is Likely at the Border

In November, a column of migrants numbering up to two thousand people crossed the Belarusian border and ended up in neutral territory.

Polish border guards did not allow the refugees to enter their territory, and the migrants set up a tent camp.

As of 9 November, the situation had not changed significantly.

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts how events might develop further.
“The authorities may organize the transport of migrants through checkpoints”
Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Sciences, noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that the likelihood that Western countries would believe Belarusian statements about their non-involvement in the events was extremely low.

Photo: dw.com
“It is already well known how migrants enter the territory of Belarus, and that the local authorities have enough mechanisms to prevent such migration.

Moreover, statements by officials make it quite clear that the migration crisis is a response to sanctions and to the EU’s position toward Belarus, and that it is a mechanism of pressure on the European Union,” Kazakevich said.

Why had nothing similar happened before Monday, 8 November: a mass march of around two thousand migrants to the border?

The political scientist believes this was the result of a convergence of factors.
“A sufficiently large number of migrants has already accumulated on the territory of Belarus, while their opportunities to enter the EU are becoming fewer and fewer, and tension is increasing.

In addition, winter is approaching: weather conditions for illegal migration, including staying in forests in the border zone, will soon deteriorate significantly.

And perhaps this is the Belarusian authorities’ last attempt, before the approval of the fifth sanctions package, to get the EU to soften its position,” Kazakevich believes.

The EU’s main response as a whole will be a new package of sanctions.
“It will probably include companies, both tourism and aviation, as well as officials connected to the migration crisis,” Kazakevich suggests.

If the migrants fail to break through the Polish border security and politicians do not find a compromise, how will the Belarusian authorities act?
“They will probably continue helping migrants enter Poland.

They will find some loopholes and suggest tactics.

It cannot be ruled out that the authorities will even begin organizing the transport of migrants through checkpoints, in trucks and other vehicles,” Kazakevich said.

He added:
“If the Belarusian authorities understand that pressure on Europe is futile and that they are losing more from the migration crisis than they gain, they will be able to solve the problem fairly quickly.”

Read in full (https://udf.name/news/sobytie/235590-politologi-na-granice-verojatna-gumanitarnaja-katastrofa-s-desjatkami-smertej.html)