Political Analyst on the Migration Crisis: Minsk Lost to Europe, Which Is Now Ready for Even Tougher Measures

Do the organizers of the migration flow already regret their actions?

Politicians continue to look for ways to resolve the migration crisis.

Last week, Alexander Lukashenka expressed dissatisfaction that his communication with Angela Merkel had not resulted in the creation of a humanitarian corridor and the transfer of two thousand people to Germany.

But the European Union stated that it was ready to allocate 3.5 million euros for the return of migrants to their countries of origin.

On Thursday, 25 November, commenting on the cancellation of an evacuation flight from Minsk to Iraq, the Belarusian leader again voiced complaints against the European Union.
“They are scoundrels too: ‘We allocated money, millions and thousands’… Not a single kopeck has arrived here.

What does that flight cost?!

And there is no one to pay for it.

Let the European Union pay,” Lukashenka said.

On the same day, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anatol Hlaz reported that no payment from the EU for assistance to migrants had yet been received.

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts what stage the migration crisis is now at.
“It is already possible to say that Minsk has lost”
The director of the Political Sphere Institute and doctor of political science Andrei Kazakevich, in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/), noted that the situation has moved from escalation to the stage of discussing various options for a technical resolution of the crisis.

Photo: svaboda.org
“Namely: who will pay for the return of migrants and how, and how international organizations will be involved in this,” Kazakevich stated.

Why have the Belarusian authorities stopped allowing migrants to storm the Polish border and throw stones?
“The main reason is that it produced no result.

It not only failed to achieve the main goals Minsk set when it began this crisis, namely the lifting of sanctions and recognition of Lukashenka’s legitimacy.

On the contrary, violent escalation only strengthened European unity on the Belarus issue and reinforced the position of those politicians who advocate sanctions and strong pressure on Minsk,” Kazakevich noted.

Moreover, in his view, the incidents involved serious risks and costs.
“Clashes could have occurred between Belarusian and Polish security forces.

This could have prompted Poland to close the border completely,” Kazakevich believes.

The political analyst drew a bleak conclusion for the Belarusian authorities.
“Probably, it is already possible to say that Minsk has lost in this confrontation.

The original bet was that Europe was weak, that pressure at the border would trigger a domestic political crisis in individual countries or otherwise force the EU to change its attitude toward Belarus.

But as we can see, the result is the opposite: Europe is now more consolidated than ever in relation to Minsk and more than ever inclined toward a rather tough position,” Kazakevich argues.

At the same time, in his view, isolated incidents at the border will most likely continue.
“Probably, the Belarusian authorities will change tactics, helping either large or small groups to cross the border.

But it seems to me that there will be no further increase in the intensity of the migration crisis in the near future,” Kazakevich said.

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