Research · 13 March 2014
Oligarchy or Vertical? Regional Elites in Belarus: Evolution in 1999-2014 Based on the Example of Regional Councils
On 23 March 2014, Belarus will hold the next elections to local Councils of Deputies. Over the past two decades, they have evolved from bodies whose deputies were elected in competitive elections into closed, stable structures with their own informal rules. An analysis of their composition makes it possible to trace important political trends at the regional level. While the election results are still unknown, there is reason to sum up the trends that have developed over the past 15 years.
Main conclusions
1. Regional Councils should not be treated as exclusively decorative structures, at least because of their composition: by position, people who are important at the regional level dominate in regional Councils. The Councils clearly perform the role of communication within regional elites and of communication between these elites and the population.
2. The composition of the Councils has an oligarchic character: heads of enterprises or organisations dominate almost completely (75-90%); deputy heads or heads of structural units account for 8-18%; and “ordinary” employees are usually represented by only 1-2 people per Council. Residents of regional centres also dominate among deputies, while the regions themselves are underrepresented.
3. With the absolute dominance of the state sector (75-90%), there is a gradual increase in the representation of private business (around 5%), which may indicate shifts in the distribution of power at the regional level.
4. Recently, the representation of public administration institutions in regional Councils has declined, while the importance of the production sector has increased. At the same time, there has been a critical fall in representation from agriculture. This may also indicate significant political changes in favour of “business” (both state and private) at the regional level.
5. Some parameters indicate that the composition of regional Councils is formed at the level of the regional centre, and that local leadership has considerable autonomy in this regard.
The study was conducted by the Institute for Political Studies “Political Sphere” in 2012-2013. Authors: Andrei Kazakevich, Vadzim Smok.