“Lukashenka Made It Clear That the Threat of a Repeat of 2020 Is Very High”

Is dialogue between the Belarusian authorities and the West possible in the near future?

In April, Russia stopped attacking Ukraine from Belarusian territory, and its troops have almost been withdrawn from our country.

Adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych stated that Kyiv is not ready in the near future to break economic ties with Belarus and will continue to pursue a cautious policy toward it.

The Belarusian authorities even attempted to establish a dialogue with European countries.

But in response to “Makei’s letter,” a European diplomat who wished to remain anonymous said that, for dialogue to begin, Lukashenka’s regime “must make an explicit gesture toward its own society and opposition.

An obvious one would be when 100 percent or 80 percent of political prisoners return home.

There are now almost 1,200 political prisoners; at least 1,000 must be released.”

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts whether the situation for the Belarusian regime has changed for the better.
“Just as Russian troops left Belarus, they can enter it again”
Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science, noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that the West has regarded and will continue to regard the Belarusian regime as a co-aggressor.

Photo: dw.com
“Because just as Russian troops left Belarus, they can enter it again.

Lukashenka has in no way indicated that he is against such a scenario.

Russian troops left because of a change in Moscow’s strategic goals, not Minsk’s.

For further sanctions to be softened, real steps by the Belarusian authorities are needed,” Kazakevich believes.

What could force them to release political prisoners so that the West would enter into dialogue?
“A change in the economic situation.

Sanctions and the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia may lead to a significant reduction in the financial resources available to Lukashenka.

I think this is the main factor that could force him to take such a step,” Kazakevich said.

So should one not expect a dialogue between the Belarusian authorities and the West to begin in the near future?
“Why not?

There are very many problems in the economy; sanctions are having a very serious impact on it.

I think everything is possible even within the next year,” Kazakevich noted.

Arestovych made statements that should have pleased the Belarusian authorities.

Can such a position by Ukraine soften the West’s position toward Belarus?
“First, it is unclear what he meant by continuing economic cooperation and what content he put into it.

There was too little specificity in this statement.

Second, so far there are no signs that Kyiv is in any way lobbying internationally for a softer position toward Minsk.

Therefore I do not think Arestovych’s statements will have any significance.

If such words are spoken by Zelensky or the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, that would be a different matter.

But so far there are no signs of this,” Kazakevich said.

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