Lukashenka Is Tired of the War and the Need to Walk on Thin Ice

Last week, Alexander Lukashenka continued his aggressive rhetoric toward neighboring countries.

What signals did he send, and to whom?

At a meeting with military leaders, the head of the country stated:
“We see the true goals of the measures being conducted by NATO.”

He noted that Belarus will have to face, among other things, unprecedented military pressure.

In addition, Alexander Lukashenka ordered the creation of a Southern Operational Command to provide protection from the direction of Ukraine.

At the EAEU summit, held online, Lukashenka reproached his colleagues:
“The sanctions pressure is not weakening; rather, on the contrary, it is intensifying.

Because of the global nature of the economy and the fact that Russia and Belarus are the largest trade and economic partners for your countries, the consequences of sanctions will affect everyone to one degree or another.

Therefore, we cannot sit idly by.

I say this again to those who think that everything will pass by itself and that they will manage to sit it out safely.

We are simply obliged to unite and act as a single front.”

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts how to explain Lukashenka’s aggressive statements.

Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science, noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that the head of Belarus will not find understanding among his EAEU colleagues.

Photo: dw.com
“Lukashenka does not want to be left alone, or only with Russia, in the sanctions story.

He wants to at least partially compensate for losses with the help of EAEU countries.

But the other EAEU states do not want confrontation with the West.

The speeches of other leaders show this clearly.

Anti-Western rhetoric can be found from the leader of Kyrgyzstan, while the leaders of Kazakhstan and Armenia avoided criticizing the West.

This conflict is not beneficial for these countries; the EAEU will not compensate them for losses in the event of such confrontation.

Therefore, there is no question of any united front on the part of the EAEU,” Kazakevich believes.

He added:
“For Kazakhstan, balancing is generally very important.

A significant part of its elite fears seeing Kazakhstan in Ukraine’s place, since claims to territories in the north of the country have been voiced in Russia.”

Kazakevich also recalled that in 2021, when the European Union began imposing tough economic sanctions against Belarus, it was stated that EAEU countries could adopt retaliatory sanctions measures.
“But we see that even between Minsk and Moscow there is no understanding of what joint measures to take against Western countries.

What, then, can be said about other post-Soviet countries?” the political scientist noted.

Lukashenka ordered the creation of a Southern Operational Command.

Why?
“I am not a military expert, but I have questions: if a new command is being created, does that mean it must be supplied with weapons and personnel?

And are there funds for this?

Or will it happen at the expense of weakening the two other commands: Western and North-Western?

At the same time, from a political point of view, this decision looks like a signal: if earlier the Belarusian authorities considered NATO countries (Poland, Lithuania, Latvia) to be enemies, now Ukraine has also been added to the list of enemies,” Kazakevich said.