“Lukashenka Has Become Convinced That He Did Everything Right.” Experts on How Events in Kazakhstan Will Affect Belarus

The Belarusian authorities are using the situation in Kazakhstan to promote their rhetoric
Director of the Political Sphere Institute Andrei Kazakevich believes that the protests in Kazakhstani cities will give the Belarusian authorities confidence to continue the course of forcefully suppressing protests and alternative political activity.
— This conclusion can be drawn from how what was happening in Kazakhstan was presented (https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/8210.html) by Belarusian state media.

Now even if the facts do not correspond to what was said, for example, on television, the Belarusian side will continue to broadcast, and perhaps even believe, what it wants to believe.

In particular, that the situation was provoked by external forces, or more precisely, by the West.

They will also talk about the correctness of Lukashenka’s predictions about Western plans to destabilize the post-Soviet space and about the correctness of the course toward forceful suppression of protests, the political scientist comments. Moreover, the events in Kazakhstan allow the atmosphere of constant threat, challenges, and a war declared against the Belarusian authorities to be intensified, the political scientist believes.

Moreover, it will not be based on rational argumentation or an understanding of the nature of what is happening in Kazakhstan, but on creating an emotional background, the response to which should be mobilization, tougher actions, and the elimination of anything in which disloyalty may manifest itself in any way.

The statements “Do you want it like in Kazakhstan?” may well replace the familiar phrase about Ukraine, the political scientist suggests.
— But again, this will not be connected with what is actually happening there.

Rather, various images capable of evoking the necessary emotions will be used, accompanied by stories favorable to the authorities, for example, that everything that happened was organized by Western intelligence services.

This will be done in order to convince their supporters once again that Belarus managed to prevent something similar and that now everything is fine in the country, Andrei Kazakevich notes.

Belarusians are unlikely to return to open forms of protest without a strong trigger
According to Andrei Kazakevich, protests in Kazakhstani cities will not become an incentive for Belarusians who disagree with what is happening in the country to return to openly demonstrating their position.

Belarus is not now in a situation where one can expect a revival of open protest, given the large number of repressions, the intensive work of the security structures, and the destruction of local communities, civil society, and non-state media. “This would require a more serious trigger than simply events in a country thousands of kilometers away,” he notes.

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