Kazakevich: “The tactics differ from the Belarusian ones”

The political scientist on how events in Kazakhstan may affect our country.

Political scientist Andrei Kazakevich, discussing the situation in Kazakhstan (https://gazetaby.com/post/kazaxstan-protestnyj-kazaxi-na-specztexnike-kamery/182396/), does not rule out the possibility that a social challenge could lead to a political upheaval.
“The main thing in any protests is scale.

Everything depends on how massive the challenge is, how many people it ultimately affects”, said the director of the Political Sphere Institute in a brief comment to Solidarity. “So far in Kazakhstan we cannot assess the scale of social discontent.

Moreover, some of the protesters’ demands have already been met.

The tactics differ from the Belarusian ones.

The Kazakh authorities have so far chosen the path of certain concessions and the most peaceful possible solution.
“But nevertheless many people draw parallels.
“Parallels, of course, will be drawn (https://gazetaby.com/post/drozd-vo-vsem-proisxodyashhem-v-kazaxstane-vizhu-p/182398/).

At the same time, for Belarusian propaganda and the Belarusian authorities, a different picture would be more advantageous: if mass use of violence began there and the riot police rolled everyone into the asphalt.

Everything that happened in Belarus.

In that case, at least in the post-Soviet space, Lukashenka would feel much more confident.

He might even consider Kazakhstan his ally.

Because after the events of August 2020, that country tried to take a rather neutral position toward Belarus.

There was open tension.

And if the Kazakh authorities decide to use mass violence and what happens there resembles the Belarusian scenario, this will strengthen the position of the Belarusian authorities and provide serious arguments for propaganda.

But if, on the contrary, everything calms down through compromise, through at least partial fulfillment of people’s demands, it will demonstrate that in Belarus, too, it was probably possible not to imprison people by the thousands and not to use unjustified violence, but simply to establish dialogue and try to resolve the issues.
“What social issue could have become the same kind of trigger for Belarusians?
“In the Belarusian situation, it is now possible to mobilize people only if something extraordinary, something sharp and emergency, happens.

And it would also have to show the weakness of the authorities.

For example, some kind of utility collapse, an accident, as a result of which the authorities would show their complete inability to cope with it in any way.

Or if the dollar exchange rate rises sharply and the situation begins to get out of control.

It must be understood that in Belarus the protest has only just been suppressed; society is weakened, frightened, and not mobilized for active action.

There is an understanding that the security forces will act harshly.

Against this background, it is unlikely that any social trigger will work.

Some time must pass.

Source (https://gazetaby.com/post/kazakevich-taktika-otlichaetsya-ot-belorusskoj/182400/)