Kazakevich: Minsk Is Testing What Bonuses It Might Get from Moscow for Recognizing Crimea

The bold statement by Andrei Savinykh, head of the parliamentary commission on international affairs, about Belarus recognizing Crimea (https://gazetaby.com/post/ilyash-tezis-o-tom-chto-lukashenko-yakoby-ne-podde/180886/) as Russian allows for the possibility of “rolling everything back,” believes Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute.
— It seems to me that this is a kind of trial move.

On the one hand, Moscow would like to receive this kind of recognition, and now one can see what bonuses might come from it, the political scientist noted in a brief comment to Salidarnasts. Perhaps this issue was also part of package negotiations connected to the Union State programs, the referendum, and Russia’s role in that process.

Such statements also signal to Moscow that it would be better to stop all kinds of contacts with the opposition (https://gazetaby.com/post/franak-vecherko-vse-chto-my-govorim-popadaet-na-st/180809/), since we can also play this way.

On the other hand, this is a gesture toward Ukraine, waiting to see how it will react and whether it will be ready to make any compromises on the agenda that interests Minsk.

According to Kazakevich, the figure who made the statement was not chosen by chance.
— I do not believe that Savinykh allows himself statements of this kind without coordination.

I think the logic here is this: observers will think, some Savinykh made a statement, who is he, broadly speaking?

He is not even the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

I think such an insignificant figure was deliberately chosen to float the topic and look at the reaction.

Accordingly, it is very easy to roll everything back.

Savinykh himself can say that he was misunderstood.

And parliament itself is not the body that determines Belarusian foreign policy.

One can always say: so what, some deputy said something, and he can just as easily take his words back, Kazakevich says.

He does not believe that floating this topic will provoke a serious reaction from Ukraine.

Photo by Radio Liberty
— Yes, there may be a negative reaction from Ukraine.

But this could become a serious reason to break off relations only if Lukashenka himself made such a statement (https://gazetaby.com/post/lavrov-v-otvet-lukashenko-pro-krym-vxodit-v-soyuzn/178648/) and then did something else that would make it impossible to roll the situation back.

In the present situation, the worst that can be expected is harsh rhetoric from Ukraine.

And then space simply opens up for negotiations and bargaining: if you do not want this, then do not adopt sanctions, do not block electricity supplies, and so on.

This is one of the few levers of pressure on Ukraine, for which it is strategically disadvantageous for yet another country, especially a neighboring one, to recognize Crimea as Russian.

And the Belarusian authorities are trying to put pressure on Ukraine through this lever not for the first time.

Recall the situation with investigators from the LPR (https://gazetaby.com/post/ukraina-potrebovala-ot-belorusskix-vlastej-obyasne/177063/), who may or may not have arrived.

After airspace was closed to Belarusian aircraft, there was a promise to launch Belavia flights to Crimea (https://gazetaby.com/post/so-vsemi-vytekayushhimi-posledstviyami-ukraina-vve/176653/).

In addition, Lukashenka constantly frightens them by saying that if you pressure me, I will join Russia altogether, and then your border will not be with Belarus but with Russia.

Of course, neither Ukraine nor the West wants this, the political scientist concludes.

Source (https://gazetaby.com/post/kazakevich-minsk-proshhupyvaet-kakie-bonusy-mozhet/180892/)