Kazakevich: “Lukashenka will cease to be perceived even as semi-independent”

To recognize or not to recognize the “L/DNR” is a fateful question for the Belarusian authorities.
— If Lukashenka recognizes the independence of the “DNR” and “LNR”, this will have serious consequences (https://gazetaby.media/post/a-chem-belarus-otlichaetsya-ot-ukrainy-po-versii-p/183491/), first of all, it will affect relations with Ukraine, which are already quite complicated, said the director of the Political Sphere Institute, Andrei Kazakevich, in an express commentary for Salidarnasts. In that case, Lukashenka himself will be regarded as a direct threat to Ukraine’s national security, and cooperation in all spheres, including trade relations, will be immediately reviewed.

In addition, according to the political scientist, Lukashenka’s recognition of the “DNR” and “LNR” will also have a negative effect on relations with other post-Soviet countries:
— The reaction will be negative across the entire post-Soviet space.

It is clear that such actions by Russia will not cause positive emotions in states that can easily imagine the Ukrainian scenario being applied to themselves.

Kazakhstan, for example, understands that under certain circumstances the same could be done to it.
(It should be noted that, as of the morning of 22 February, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mukhtar Tileuberdi stated that a meeting of the Security Council would take place in the coming hours, at which Kazakhstan’s official position would be adopted.

But he claims that Kazakhstan does not intend to recognize the “L/DNR”, because it proceeds from the norms of international law and the UN Charter).

The political scientist continues that, with regard to countries in the post-Soviet space, such a decision (by official Minsk, if it recognizes them — S.) will result in coldness in relations and an unwillingness to cooperate.

Kazakevich continues that in this way Lukashenka will finally lose his subjectivity in the foreign-policy arena and harm the country’s national interests:
— This is the most important point.

Recognition of the L/DNR will lead to Lukashenka no longer being perceived in the international arena as an independent leader, or even as a semi-independent one.

Everyone will register the fact that the current Belarusian authorities no longer have an independent foreign policy; it is fully subordinated to Russian interests (https://gazetaby.media/post/vysokoe-voennoe-nachalstvo-i-chinovniki-uzhe-znayu/183441/).

Accordingly, no one will treat Lukashenka as a subject with whom any dialogue can be conducted.

It is clear that even now his international subjectivity is quite limited, but in the same post-Soviet space he has been recognized by many; at least for some countries he tried to demonstrate that he was still an independent politician.

That he follows in Russia’s wake, but nevertheless preserves some autonomy and makes some decisions himself.

Recognition would obviously also run counter to Belarus’s national interests.

Such a decision will be very difficult to explain logically, even from the point of view of the Russian position, which for a long time confirmed that it recognized Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

And Belarus did the same, the political scientist recalled.

Returning to Belarus’s domestic events, he told Salidarnasts that the referendum would take place in any case.
— The topic of the referendum will now move into the background, but the propaganda machine has been set in motion.

Of course, the referendum will take place (https://gazetaby.media/post/novoe-ot-ceslera-ostorozhno-referendum/183444/); it will be discussed.

It is possible that in campaigning for the referendum they will strengthen the element of escalating the foreign-policy threat and war.

But this does not mean that the procedure itself will be canceled.

In principle, even before this, no one perceived the referendum as a serious political procedure in the sense of citizens’ expression of will or participation in this process.

From the point of view of democratic procedures, it is simply an administrative decision imposed by force (https://gazetaby.media/post/konvejer-repressij-zhurnalistka-larisa-shhiryakova/183439/), Kazakevich emphasized.

Source (https://gazetaby.media/post/kazakevich-lukashenko-perestanet-vosprinimatsya-da/183498/)