Kazakevich: It Will No Longer Be Possible to Repeat the Crimea Scenario in Kherson

A referendum on Kherson Oblast joining the Russian Federation is planned for the autumn, the occupation administration of the region has stated.

Filin (https://gazetaby.com/category/filin/) spoke with Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute, about the consequences of this step, including for Belarus.
— What goals is the Kremlin pursuing by organising this referendum?

Will it manage to repeat its Crimean success?
— It will no longer be possible to repeat the Crimea situation.

There, after all, the operation was bloodless.

The majority of the population, by and large, spoke in support of Russia; in 2014 there were strong pro-Russian sentiments, and a minority protested.

Now in Kherson we do not see much sympathy for Russia, on the one hand.

On the other hand, in a situation of harsh occupation, military actions, when a significant part of the population has left, and when the occupation administration is in no way connected with citizens’ expression of will, it will be impossible to ensure even minimal legitimacy for such a referendum.

It will be clear to everyone that this is annexation of territory, and this referendum is merely a screen.

Why is all this being done?

To demonstrate some kind of achievement.

So far Russia has had no political successes.

It tried to take control of all Ukraine, but that attempt failed.

Now there is probably a desire to declare victory at least in this.

New territories will be acquired.

It is possible that similar “referendums” may be held in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and in other occupied regions.

And then it will be possible to announce that as a result of this operation Russia has grown by new territories, that new federal subjects have appeared, and so on.

And thereby to emphasise that Russia has a victory at this stage.

And then we will see; perhaps we will capture something else.

I think the Kremlin’s logic may be roughly like this.

Another matter is that such plans have already been voiced more than once.

There were rumours that such referendums were supposed to take place in May.

Then it was reported that there would be no vote on accession this year, because a calmer situation needed to be awaited.

And now these loud plans may be revised for various reasons.

The situation is indeed complicated.

A counterattack by Ukrainian troops can be expected; various actions, acts of sabotage, and attacks on those who are supposed to organise the vote are possible.

It is possible that it will simply be impossible to ensure even a minimal turnout of local residents.

There are more than enough problems.
— If Moscow’s plans are nevertheless carried out, how will the West react?
— It seems to me that no new mechanisms will be invented.

The West will certainly not enter the military conflict.

The only thing is that this will become yet another weighty argument for supporters of a tougher policy toward the Russian Federation.

When the situation in Ukraine began to drag on, and after several months of war it became clear that the conflict was affecting the economies of Europe and the United States, although this should not be exaggerated, the activity of supporters of a ceasefire with Moscow in exchange for some concessions from Ukraine increased.

At least at the level of experts and the media, such voices became noticeably louder.

I think that an unmotivated annexation will significantly strengthen the position of supporters of a hard line.

If this happens, the policy of sanctions and pressure will only intensify, while the likelihood of any concessions will, on the contrary, decrease.
— How could this story affect Belarus?
— The main consequence will be an even tougher Western policy toward Russia.

That, accordingly, will worsen the economic situation in the Russian Federation, which will ultimately affect Belarus as well.

A deeper economic crisis can be expected, as well as more thorough control over the enforcement of sanctions.

It is clear, after all, that schemes to bypass them will appear.

And if until now a policy of moderate control may have been in effect, in this scenario control will be more significant.

This means that bypassing sanctions with grey schemes, through Kazakhstan, as is now being discussed, will become increasingly difficult, and all these loopholes will be closed.

It is quite possible that new sanctions will also be introduced against Belarus.

At least so that our country does not turn into a grey zone for circumventing sanctions.