Kazakevich: “Europe’s position is unlikely to be very soft, but dialogue with Belarus is possible”

Director of the Political Sphere Institute Andrei Kazakevich, in an interview with Filin (https://udf.name/index.php?do=go&url=aHR0cHM6Ly9nYXpldGFieS5jb20vcG9zdC9rYXpha2V2aWNoLXBvemljaXlhLWV2cm9weS12cnlhZC1saS1idWRldC1vY2hlbi1teS8xODQ3NzUv), named two conditions that the Belarusian authorities must meet for the West to start talking to them.
— Will there be further attempts by the Lukashenka regime to bargain with the West, and are there any preconditions for liberalisation in the country?
— It will be quite difficult for the Belarusian authorities to attract attention while the war in Ukraine is ongoing.

I think there will be some attempts, at least if the Belarusian authorities want to preserve at least some autonomy and conduct their foreign policy independently, rather than fully subordinating themselves to Moscow.

Most likely, they will have to do this, because, given the sanctions, Russia may not have enough resources to cover all the losses of the Belarusian economy.

Accordingly, they will have to look for additional sources to stabilise the economic situation.

It is clear that the West is effectively the only such source, both in terms of finding opportunities and funds, and in terms of lifting sanctions, that is, easing the situation in various sectors of the Belarusian economy.

Therefore, there will probably be some approaches, but whether this will lead to any practical result is still impossible to say, since it is not very clear what the Belarusian authorities can offer Europe or the United States.

Previously, they traded not only in political prisoners and domestic liberalisation, but also in the fact that Belarus was distancing itself from Russia, that there were no Russian troops here, and that in security matters the country acted as a relatively neutral actor.

It is clear that for the security of NATO’s eastern countries, above all Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, which border Belarus, such a situation is better than having Russian troops stationed on your border.

But now it turns out that it will be difficult to bargain with all these things, because Minsk is perceived as less and less independent in its decisions.

In addition, there are Russian troops on the territory of Belarus.

The unconditional criterion for even discussing the lifting of sanctions is that there should be no troops and that Belarus should not participate in the war in any way.

Even in the form of providing territory.

Therefore, it seems to me that Europe’s position is unlikely to be very soft.

I consider dialogue itself possible — as a conversation, as an exchange of ideas, but the lifting of sanctions is possible only if there are serious steps by the Belarusian leadership, which would include not only the release of all political prisoners, but also some movement towards democratising the internal situation.

So far, we do not see such steps in Alexander Lukashenka’s policy.

Of course, the Belarusian authorities will resist.

I think that in this dialogue, if it is established, official Minsk will proceed from the position that the maximum it can agree to is the release of political prisoners, and that in exchange all sanctions should be lifted.

The Belarusian authorities will resist taking real steps towards democratisation and holding elections according to at least some acceptable democratic standards.
— What should be the first step for the West to start talking to official Minsk?

Will the first demand be the withdrawal of Russian troops, and only then the release of political prisoners?
— Different countries will have different positions on the requirements.

Without the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus and condemnation, or at least distancing from Moscow’s position on the Ukrainian issue, contacts are unlikely to move into a practical plane in terms of lifting sanctions or expanding any other cooperation.

At least, if we are talking about the current moment, it is hard to imagine Europe starting serious diplomatic work with Belarus unless two points are fulfilled: first, the withdrawal of troops; second, distancing from the Kremlin.

Or, let us say, if Belarus cannot withdraw the troops because they are not under its control, then a statement that we do not support Russia’s actions.
— Can sanctions force the Belarusian authorities to take such steps?
— Yes.

But probably, for this to happen, time is needed.

Again, one must not forget that there is also the factor of Russia, and its actions may also be unpredictable in the Belarusian direction.

Therefore, of course, the Belarusian authorities fear some risky steps by the Russian leadership.

But overall, the losses that the Belarusian economy will suffer as a result of sanctions are significant, and very soon the question will arise of somehow avoiding these negative effects and, possibly, even reaching some compromise with European countries.

Source (https://udf.name/news/main_news/242384-kazakevich-pozicija-evropy-vrjad-li-budet-ochen-mjagkoj-no-dialog-s-belarusju-vozmozhen.html)