“If Supplies Are Abruptly Stopped, There Will Be Nowhere to Put the Gas.” Who Would Suffer More if Russia Turns Off the Tap — Expert Opinions

After Europeans refused (https://news.zerkalo.io/world/11905.html?c) to pay for gas in Russian rubles, Moscow adopted (http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68094) a “compromise decision”: payment may now be made in foreign currency, but only to specially opened accounts at Gazprombank.

Yet even after softening its position, the Kremlin continues to threaten (https://news.zerkalo.io/world/12014.html) to halt supplies if “unfriendly countries” refuse its conditions.

Experts were asked whether Russia could really turn off the tap and who would suffer more from such a decision: the European Union or Russia itself.

Political scientist Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute, considers the scheme proposed by the Russian president to be a compromise between what the Kremlin initially demanded and how gas buyers from “unfriendly countries” want to continue paying.
“It provides that Europeans will pay for gas in the currency specified in the contracts, transferring it to Gazprombank.

The bank will then convert the currency into rubles.

It seems that this will not seriously change [the previous gas payment schemes], especially given the obligation of all Russian exporters, including Gazprom, to sell 80 percent of their foreign currency revenues.

But even if such a scheme does not particularly affect Gazprom’s bilateral relations with gas buyers, it will be actively used inside Russia as confirmation of the strength of the authorities and their ability to get their way on the international stage, the expert notes.

By deciding to stop gas supplies to Europe, Russia would also harm itself
But even after the development of a “compromise option,” the Kremlin continues to threaten (https://news.zerkalo.io/world/12014.html) to stop contracts, and therefore gas supplies, if Europeans do not pay according to Moscow’s conditions.

Andrei Kazakevich does not rule out the implementation of Putin’s threat if buyers from “unfriendly countries” refuse to comply with Moscow’s terms.

Especially given how relations between Russia and Europe are developing.
“Obviously, this would have serious consequences for everyone.

Russia could lose important gas consumers.

In addition, such a decision would be regarded by buyers as a breach of contract.

That means that lawsuits from the Europeans could be expected.

Those countries that are not heavily dependent on Russian gas will try to abandon it as quickly as possible.

Those with fewer options will nevertheless be forced for some period, until they find new suppliers, to transfer money to a Russian bank.

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