Publications · 7 December 2021
How US Sanctions against Russia Could “Ricochet” into Belarus
Sanctions against Russia may also affect the Belarusian economy, Andrei Kazakevich, Director of the Political Sphere Institute, explains to Belsat.
The sanctions being considered by the United States could significantly complicate Russia’s economic development. They are unlikely simply to destroy the economy, but they would create many problems. For example, disconnection from SWIFT, even if there are ways to bypass sanctions, would increase the burden on the financial system, create additional costs for transferring funds, and make Russia less attractive to international business. Belarus, meanwhile, is highly dependent on Russia and on Russian economic conditions.
“Belarus’s dependence on Russia is multi-layered,” Kazakevich explains. “First, Russia accounts for about half of Belarus’s trade turnover and is the main sales market where many Belarusian producers earn their main income.
It is also a very important labour market, where a large number of Belarusians work. We do not know the exact figures because official statistics are inaccurate, but these are hundreds of thousands of people who are in one way or another connected with work in Russian regions. A deterioration of the economic situation means that they will return to Belarus or reduce remittances to their home country. A reduction in money transfers from abroad is also a potential problem for many households.
There is also the issue of access to technologies: sanctions may further restrict Russia’s access to various technologies that could strengthen its military potential. Accordingly, these technologies will cease to be available to Belarus as Russia’s main ally.”