How events in Kazakhstan will affect Lukashenka’s policy

In Kazakhstan, because of protests that began after the authorities decided to raise car fuel prices, but quickly acquired a political character, a state of emergency has been declared and a curfew introduced.

The number of deaths among both protesters and security forces is in the dozens.

Peacekeeping forces from Russia and Belarus have been sent to the country.

The Kazakh authorities requested such assistance from member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts how events in Kazakhstan may affect the situation in Belarus.
“The constitutional reform will take place, but its implementation will be delayed”
Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science, noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that after the events in Kazakhstan, the Belarusian authorities will act more cautiously in terms of transforming the political system.

Photo: dw.com
“The events in Kazakhstan are not yet over, but they are most likely to affect the Belarusian regime’s position regarding a possible transition of power.

If we proceed from the proposed draft Constitution, a scenario was likely in which Lukashenka would move to the position of chair of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly and a new president would appear.

But in Kazakhstan we see that this model can malfunction and create problems; contradictions can arise between two centers of power”, Kazakevich said.

He emphasized:
“It seems to me that after the events in Kazakhstan, the Belarusian regime, and specifically Lukashenka, will have less desire to transfer power to anyone”.

Could Belarus cancel or postpone the referendum planned for February?
“Most likely, the constitutional reform will take place, but its implementation will drag on.

Lukashenka may occupy two key posts at the same time: both president and chair of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, while the timing of a real transition of power will be pushed back.

Although Lukashenka was not planning it in the near future anyway”, Kazakevich believes.

The events in Kazakhstan will also have other consequences in Belarus.
“The authorities will use this situation to demonstrate the correctness of their policy and justify the forceful suppression of protest in 2020: supposedly, if they had not reacted harshly at once and had made concessions, it would have been like Kazakhstan, with numerous human casualties.

This idea will be popularized in state media and at meetings involving the nomenklatura”, Kazakevich believes.

He added:
“A negative image will also be created of what protests and revolution, and in general the desire to change power, can bring”.

Source (https://udf.name/news/sobytie/237941-kak-sobytija-v-kazahstane-povlijajut-na-politiku-lukashenko.html)