How did Belarus change in 2021?

Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute:
“The main result of 2021 can be considered the fact that the political model formed between 1996 and 2000 has been definitively destroyed.

At the beginning of the year, the authorities still expected that it would be possible to return to the ‘before’ state, that the system could regenerate and develop normally. 2021 showed unequivocally that this is not the case.

Obviously, there will be something completely different.

What exactly is a big question, but a return to the past is no longer possible.

The crisis in relations with the West is the deepest in the entire history of Belarus.

Moreover, Ukraine has begun to regard Belarus as a threat to itself, because Belarus’s interests have increasingly coincided with Russia’s interests.

Such a situation has never existed before.

Another new phenomenon is the destruction of the balance within the ruling class.

A large number of security officials have been integrated into the system at both the national and regional levels.

The previously existing balance among different interest groups has completely changed.

The split between the authorities and society has deepened.

This trend was already clearly marked in 2020, but in 2021 it became fully entrenched.

In 2022, the politicization of society in Belarus will continue to increase.

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