For Lukashenka, the situation with illegal migrants still has more disadvantages than advantages

Last week, the leaders of Germany and Russia, Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, spoke twice by phone to discuss the migration crisis.

The former asked the latter to influence Alexander Lukashenka, but Putin twice stated that the European Union needed to establish direct contact with Minsk.

And in a recent interview, the Russian president said:
“As I understand it, Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenka and Chancellor Merkel are ready to talk to each other.

I hope this will happen soon; this is the most important thing, because the migrants are primarily striving for Germany.”

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts why Russia’s leadership supports Lukashenka despite everything.
“Forces are emerging in the EU that support dialogue with the Belarusian authorities”
The director of the Political Sphere Institute and doctor of political science Andrei Kazakevich noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that Russia’s position in the situation with illegal migrants can be described as dual.

Photo: svaboda.org
“Moscow is fulfilling its obligations as an ally: it is obvious that there are informal agreements that Russia supports the Belarusian side on international platforms and considers Lukashenka the legitimate head of state with whom negotiations should be conducted,” Kazakevich said.

At the same time, Moscow also wants to remain involved in the negotiation process and have opportunities to influence the situation.
“It is strategically convenient for Russia to remain in the role of mediator.

That is why Putin does not refuse to discuss the situation with migrants with the German side,” Kazakevich believes.

Lukashenka spoke of attempts to transfer weapons “from Donbas” to migrants on the border in order to create provocations.

What might be behind this statement?
“I do not think these words indicate concrete facts.

At least we have no grounds to trust the Belarusian authorities.

Most likely, this is a continuation of the game of escalation.

It cannot be ruled out that some incidents may occur on the border, and the Belarusian authorities want to divert suspicion from themselves in advance.

If something happens, they will say: we warned about weapons,” Kazakevich believes.

In whose favor, in his view, is the confrontation on the Belarusian-Polish border unfolding?

Is the Belarusian regime managing to extract benefits for itself?
“The benefit can be seen in the fact that forces are emerging in European countries that advocate dialogue with the Belarusian authorities.

At the same time, the European Union as a whole is suffering reputational losses: human rights organizations and left-wing forces are criticizing the actions of the authorities of Lithuania and Poland, speaking of human rights violations.

Still, for the Belarusian regime there are currently more disadvantages than advantages.

The most important thing is that the migration crisis is not leading to the realization of official Minsk’s strategic goals, namely the lifting of sanctions,” Kazakevich noted.

Source (https://udf.name/news/sobytie/235744-minusov-dlja-lukashenko-poka-bolshe-chem-pljusov-v-situacii-s-nelegalnymi-migrantami.html)