“Fighting ‘Enemies’ Comes First.” Experts Analyze Lukashenka’s Address

Alexander Lukashenka spoke for three and a half hours (https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/9198.html) with an address before officials, deputies, and representatives of quasi-state public organizations (if you do not want to read the full version, here (https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/9221.html) is a very brief one).

He again stated that he was not clinging to power, but “thank God, I did not leave.”

The politician repeated that the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly was being created “for no one in particular,” that 60% of Belarusians wanted an updated Constitution, and that only 3% supported sanctions.

Amid the abundance of words, it was not easy to grasp the main idea and purpose of the address.

We asked experts for their opinion on this matter.

Kazakevich: Lukashenka does not plan to go far
Political scientist and director of the Political Sphere Institute Andrei Kazakevich noted differences between how the politician behaved and spoke during his monologue and how he answered questions.
— In the speech, the messages were harsh and clear, while in the answers to questions there was a great deal of uncertainty, vagueness, and political emptiness.

Overall, during the address Alexander Lukashenka expressed the idea that lies at the basis of the constitutional reform.

This was the main political message of the speech, the political scientist believes.
— First, from the authorities’ point of view, in 2020 there was an external sabotage operation, an attempt to carry out a “color revolution” inspired by Western countries.

Only in passing does he admit that there was a kind of “protest vote,” as well as failures in the functioning of the system.

But “we withstood it,” and now we must guarantee that this never happens again, regardless of what measures and means are needed for this.

Second, the speech expressed confidence in the ability to remain in power, as well as readiness to demand from society not only passive loyalty, but also acceptance of its values and attitudes.

It was repeatedly emphasized that the state apparatus must be active in promoting and, in fact, imposing on society the official ideology and ideas about the relationship between the citizen, society, and the state.

What was said confirmed that the authorities continue to deny the existence of serious protest sentiments in the country. According to the politician, the number of people who voted against him “varies within 10%,” the expert notes.
— Allegedly, this is a tiny minority, so there is no need to orient oneself toward it or take its opinion into account.

At best, it can be ignored, and if necessary, repressed.

Against the background of such statements, it is difficult to expect any dialogue or reconciliation initiatives in the near future, Andrei Kazakevich believes.
— Incidentally, the authorities’ vision of a national reconciliation scenario was also well reflected in his speech.

Lukashenka suggested to those abroad: “repent and get on your knees!” the expert continues, conveying the essence of what Alexander Lukashenka said. According to this logic, an opponent of the authorities, in order to be allowed to live in the country (there is no question at all of taking their opinion or interests into account), must acknowledge complete and unconditional capitulation.

And, ideally, do so publicly.

At the same time, if the authorities suspect him of committing crimes, he will still have to serve a prison sentence.

The second important message to which the political scientist drew attention is that after the referendum the political system will be based on those people who “showed themselves well” in 2020–2021.

They are expected to form a new civil society in place of the previously liquidated public organizations and to renew the authorities.

These same people have a chance to enter the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly.
— Here there was a clear message and a motivating factor for the nomenklatura: Lukashenka will leave someday and will hand power over to them.

But at the same time, only absolute loyalty and commitment to official political values guarantee that they will remain in the system.

At the same time, no serious ideas were voiced about how the transfer of power might take place or what the country’s political future might look like.

The expert believes that there is no understanding of this yet.

At the same time, there was a message that Lukashenka is not the last president.

This can be understood to mean that in the next election there may be another candidate from the authorities instead of him, but that Lukashenka himself does not plan to leave politics completely, Andrei Kazakevich explains.

He says that, most likely, it is assumed that the new president will be controlled by the old one through the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, whose powers will allow control over the activities of all branches of government.

Read in full: https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/9226.html?c (https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/9226.html?c)