“Everything is collapsing, and he was not prepared for it.” What explains Lukashenka’s “infantilism” in recent days

The plans of the Belarusian authorities have collapsed: instead of a period of calm, a period of constant turbulence is beginning.

While the war in Ukraine is under way and has become the focus of the entire world’s attention, Alexander Lukashenka practically “does not notice” it.

Events involving him have recently been pushed as far as possible away from military and sanctions-related topics.
3 March — a ceremony for presenting state awards and general’s shoulder boards.
4 March — a ceremony for signing the decision of the national referendum.
5 March — participation in the “Minsk Ski Track” sports festival in Raubichy.
9 March — a report on bringing order to the forests.

At the last event, Lukashenka briefly touched on the topic of sanctions:
“Whatever sanctions they impose against us, there is not enough timber in the world.

One way or another, they will come, ask, and buy it.

Both the EU and our southern neighbouring states.”

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts what explains Lukashenka’s rather strange behaviour.
“Instead of a period of calm, there will be a period of constant turbulence”
The director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science Andrei Kazakevich, in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/), noted that the Belarusian authorities are in a state of some prostration.

Photo: dw.com
“Lukashenka’s silence is connected, among other things, with the fact that there is simply nothing to say.

The Belarusian authorities are losing control over what is happening in the country.

Russian troops are on the territory of the country; Belarus has provided military and civilian infrastructure for the aggression against Ukraine.

And it is receiving numerous sanctions for this,” Kazakevich said.

He added:
“Until recently, the entire hope of the Belarusian authorities was that ‘Russia will help’ — above all economically.

They thought that, in the event of sanctions, they would reorient themselves toward the Russian market.

But now it is obvious that everything is beginning to collapse, and the Belarusian authorities were not prepared for this scenario; they have no resources to prevent the negative consequences.

Generally speaking, everything that was planned in political and economic terms is, to put it mildly, in question.

In fact, all these plans have been destroyed.”

Lukashenka expected that in the coming years he would have the opportunity to reformat the political system.
“To make it as convenient and stable as possible for the current authorities.

But it turns out that the authorities will not have two calm years (until the parliamentary elections in 2024).

Instead of a period of calm, there will be a period of constant turbulence.

At the same time, Lukashenka is becoming even more dependent on Moscow, so many new risks and challenges have emerged,” Kazakevich noted.

The rhetoric of the Belarusian leader has recently been surprisingly calm.

Why?
“There is no previous aggression toward the West: in a situation where, with one movement of the hand, all sanctions against Russia can be extended to Belarus, speaking sharply becomes increasingly risky.

There is no previous aggression toward political opponents, internal enemies: in a situation of fragility and unpredictability, there is a risk of increasing tension in society — against the background of economic problems, the thread may simply snap.

In general, after everything that has happened, the authorities do not understand how to communicate with the West, with society, or with Ukraine,” Kazakevich said.

Read in full (https://udf.name/news/sobytie/240539-vse-rushitsja-i-k-jetomu-on-okazalsja-ne-gotov-v-chem-prichina-infantilizma-lukashenko-v-poslednie-dni.html)