“Belarusian Troops Will Not Enter Ukraine Because They Risk Being Defeated”

Why are relations between the Belarusian opposition and the Ukrainian authorities not developing?

A widely discussed interview with Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, once again provoked discussion of Belarusian-Ukrainian relations.

This included the question of why official Kyiv is so cool toward Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s team and, as it seems, toward the Belarusian opposition in general.

Meanwhile, a work by Vasil Bykov was removed from the Ukrainian school curriculum.

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts why relations between the Belarusian opposition and the Ukrainian authorities are not developing.
“The Ukrainian elite is accustomed to thinking that the Belarusian opposition is incapable of influencing the situation in the country”
Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science, noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that there are several reasons for this.

Photo: dw.com
“If we judge by the statements of Ukrainian politicians and experts, one factor was that immediately after the events of 2020 in Belarus, the new political forces did not take a clear position on issues that are key for Ukraine: the status of Crimea and the future of Donbas.

Although it is understandable that the Belarusian democratic forces were forced to take such an evasive position, since the Kremlin was expected to play a significant role in resolving the political crisis, this created a negative background in relations with Ukraine,” Kazakevich said.

The second reason is that rumors circulated in Ukrainian media, following Belarusian media, that the new opposition could be controlled from Moscow.
“The third reason is that the Ukrainian political elite is accustomed to thinking that the Belarusian opposition is incapable of influencing the situation in the country, while Lukashenka is understandable to them and some still do not regard him as an unequivocal enemy.

Because in the past there were good relations, both political and economic, and Minsk served as a negotiating platform between Ukraine and Russia.

There are probably hopes that Lukashenka, despite his current relations with Putin, may still make a turn,” Kazakevich noted.

There is an impression that the Ukrainian authorities are trying to speak and act cautiously toward the Belarusian regime.

Can such a line of behavior guarantee that Belarusian troops will not launch hostilities against their neighbors?
“I would not agree with the thesis that Ukraine speaks cautiously; very harsh assessments are also voiced.

Kyiv rejected the option of grain transit through Belarus.

And Belarusian troops will not enter Ukraine primarily because they risk being defeated.

The Belarusian army has few troops capable of conducting offensive operations.

Added to this are unpredictable social and political consequences inside Belarus: the war would be extremely unpopular, and it would become a challenge to the stability of the system,” Kazakevich believes.

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