Are Sanctions Working or Not? What Is Happening to Belarusian Transit through the Baltics

“Sanctions are working” and “sanctions are effective” are different questions

If there is so much “noise” around sanctions evasion, this means that sanctions are working, Andrei Kazakevich, Director of the Political Sphere Institute, explains to Belsat. The mechanism itself is functioning.

“But whether the sanctions will be effective, no one knows,” Kazakevich says. “All of this will become clear only through practice. At the moment, we cannot predict how consistently the European Union will enforce the sanctions, just as we cannot predict whether the Belarusian authorities will be able to reorient themselves towards other markets or find schemes or loopholes that would still allow them to trade with the European Union.”

For now, the expert adds, there are more questions than answers. In Lithuania, however, there is active discussion about how to restrict imports of sanctioned goods and all possible ways of evading sanctions. Lithuania has already introduced additional restrictions against Belarus and “takes a proactive position”.

“As for other countries, much will depend on where a country is located,” the political scientist says. “Countries that have faced real security threats from Belarus this year, above all through the migration crisis, such as Lithuania and Poland, and also Latvia, will be more concerned about problems in Belarus and more consistent on sanctions. More distant countries will probably be much less motivated.”

Kazakevich notes that much also depends on the extent to which the countries most involved in the conflict will be able to defend their position and secure a consistent policy at the European level.

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