Andrei Kazakevich: The Outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian War May Change Everything Significantly for Us

Yesterday, during a meeting with the governor of Voronezh Oblast, Alexander Lukashenka stated that other “republics of the former USSR” would “join” the Union of Belarus and Russia. “Solidarity” asked (https://d39uxpsv2daljb.cloudfront.net/post/kazakevich-k-sozhaleniyu-my-naxodimsya-v-zalozhnik/184958/) political scientist and director of the Political Sphere Institute Andrei Kazakevich what the chances of this are.

And how, in general, can the current situation affect the fate of Belarus and the entire region?

Andrei Kazakevich
“Right now this idea looks rather ridiculous.

After the Russian Federation’s aggression against Ukraine, Russia itself has become a very toxic state,” Kazakevich says. “All the integration processes in the post-Soviet space that Moscow had launched in recent years are now at their lowest point.

It is obvious that the locomotive and initiator of this integration is turning, if not into a pariah state, then into a country very strongly isolated from others.

A country against which a large number of sanctions have been imposed.

And, of course, for all participants in the Eurasian Union and the CIS, the main task now is somehow to avoid these sanctions themselves.

Against this background, no sovereign state will agree to join these unions in any way or to create something new.

At least not voluntarily.”

The interlocutor does not consider the violent seizure of territories realistic at the moment.
“They may want it, but wanting is harmless.

We see how bogged down the situation in Ukraine has become, and probably in the coming years this conflict will absorb most Russian resources.

Opening some second front here seems incredible.

Moreover, the question arises: what state could Russia include in some kind of union?

Demand that Kazakhstan give up some territories?

It is very doubtful that this would lead to a positive result.

Armenia, for example, is also a major question mark.

First, there is no common border, but there are many territorial disputes and problems with both Turkey and Azerbaijan.

And the population would never accept anything like that.

Even with regard to Transnistria there are serious doubts.

Russia now has no common border with Transnistria.

In my view, there has never been a strong desire there to become part of some union with Russia or to join it.

There is probably a force-based option, but then the question arises of what to do with Moldova, on whose market Transnistria is very strongly dependent, and through it on the European Union market.

Therefore, apart from such unrecognized entities as the ‘DNR’, the ‘LNR’, South Ossetia, and perhaps Abkhazia, there are no others willing to participate in a common union with Russia and Belarus,” Kazakevich concluded.

At the same time, in his opinion, it is now impossible for Belarus to escape Russian control.

A whole series of serious factors would be needed for this.
“Unfortunately, we are hostages in this situation.

Lukashenka remained in power only thanks to Moscow’s support and, accordingly, Moscow can put serious pressure on him.

And we have been observing this throughout the past year.

He has done a great deal to increase dependence on Russia.

In the security sphere, sovereignty has been significantly limited.

In the information sphere, Belarusian state media are subordinated to Russian ones.

The ‘road maps’ have been signed, even if they are very abstract, but nevertheless Belarusian sovereignty continues to remain under threat.

However, the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war may change everything significantly.

This is the main factor, and the key issue here is what will happen to Russia itself, to its economy and politics.

Will it be a strengthening of the authoritarian trend or, perhaps, some changes in the leadership, a coup, and so on.

All these processes will have a very strong impact on what will happen to Belarus,” Kazakevich is convinced.
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