An unsuccessful transition: how events in Kazakhstan will affect the situation in Belarus

In February this year, the Belarusian authorities plan to hold a referendum on a new constitution (https://www.dw.com/ru/mina-zamedlennogo-dejstvija-chto-znachit-proekt-konstitucii-dlja-lukashenko/a-60273475).

The amendments are expected to introduce significant limits on presidential powers.

Talk of an imminent transition of power in Belarus appeared after Aliaksandr Lukashenka met Vladimir Putin in Sochi in September 2020, amid mass protests in Belarus after the falsification of the results of the presidential election.

The implied model was the “Kazakh variant”, implemented in March 2019.

Nursultan Nazarbayev’s (https://www.dw.com/ru/%D0%BD%D1%83%D1%80%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BD-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%B5%D0%B2-%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%B0-%D1%81-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/a-47981098) voluntary resignation from the presidency was intended to ensure a peaceful and managed transition of power.

His successor automatically became Senate chair Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (https://www.dw.com/ru/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%8B%D0%BC-%D0%B6%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%82-%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B5%D0%B2-%D0%B8%D0%B7%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9-%D0%B8%D0%BE-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0-%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%85%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0/a-49099425), but the reformed legislation allowed Kazakhstan’s first president to retain important levers of power.

Nazarbayev was given the lifetime right to chair the Security Council.

But it is at him that, since 3 January, people in the streets have been chanting “Shal, ket!” (“Old man, go away!”).

Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute, believes that it is still too early to reason about what has happened; at least a couple of days should pass.

However, in his view, one should not expect the events in Kazakhstan to have a direct impact on the Belarusian situation.

The authorities are unlikely to cancel the referendum, although such rumors are already circulating, but Belarusians are also unlikely to try Kazakhstan’s events on themselves.

Lukashenka does not make far-reaching plans, the political scientist continues, and he already copes poorly with some things.

For example, a year and a half was not enough for him to stabilize the situation in the country after the 2020 crisis.

He cannot completely abandon the transition of power, but he will postpone this moment: if the constitutional amendments are adopted, the next elections, parliamentary and local, will take place in two years, and during that time some decisions will be made.

Read in full (https://www.dw.com/ru/kak-sobytija-v-kazahstane-skazhutsja-na-belarusi/a-60342645)