“Allied Resolve” in Belarus: Exercises or a Prelude to an Invasion of Ukraine?

“Minsk is fully playing along with Putin in his confrontation with the West and Ukraine”
At the same time, director of the Political Sphere Institute Andrei Kazakevich believes that at present one can rather speak of Belarus’s growing dependence on Russia in security matters.

In his assessment, these issues are increasingly being decided by Moscow on its own, while Minsk can only comply. “This is not surprising, given that the Kremlin has become the main source for maintaining Lukashenka’s power,” the interlocutor of the Russian Service of Voice of America emphasized. “Therefore, Minsk is fully playing along with Putin in his confrontation with the West and Ukraine.

But this does not yet mean that Belarus has fully integrated itself into the framework of Russia’s military doctrine.

It is simply that Minsk is taking an exclusively opportunistic position at this stage.

Perhaps because Lukashenka was promised something for this.

Perhaps he is forced to fulfill the obligations he took upon himself when he desperately needed Moscow’s help.”

However, it is still difficult to say how stable the current arrangement is, Andrei Kazakevich argues: “Because all these initiatives are short-term in nature.

Time will pass, and it cannot be ruled out that Lukashenka will take a different position, for example, refuse to coordinate his position in detail when making decisions related to defense and security.

However, the fact that Minsk is currently subordinated to Moscow in this sphere is obvious.”

Against the background of the Allied Resolve exercises taking place in Belarus, the Kremlin stated that after the maneuvers Russian troops would return to their permanent bases; the Belarusian defense minister also spoke about this.

However, many, including the Belarusian opposition, doubt this.

Nevertheless, the director of the Political Sphere Institute believes that the Russian military will still leave Belarus. “This action was important in order to put pressure on the West and Kyiv, demonstrating possible scenarios for encircling Ukraine and confirming that Belarus is effectively ready to become a bridgehead for action against Ukraine.

But long-term decisions here, as it appears, have not yet been made.

I think that after the exercises, as an act of intimidation, Russian troops will nevertheless return to their barracks.

If only because there is not yet the necessary infrastructure for them in Belarus,” Andrei Kazakevich concluded.

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