Alexander Lukashenka’s “feverish fantasies”

Experts commented on Alexander Lukashenka’s speech concerning the so-called referendum on constitutional amendments
Speaking about the vote he had scheduled for a month later on the introduction of so-called amendments to the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, he stated that there would be no dual power in the country.

According to Lukashenka, “The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly is not being created for anyone, especially not for the current president.

You make a decision: the current president will retire, that’s it, he has already done his job.

If you consider it necessary for me to do something else in this country, you will say so.

I have not become bronze-cast; you can always tell me straight to my face what I should or should not do.

Indeed, you turn on the iron — Lukashenka; the kettle — Lukashenka; the television… And now this smartphone.

Lukashenka everywhere, in short…,” he noted “self-critically,” without saying a word about the mass protests that swept the country after he falsified the results of the presidential election in August 2020, or about the mass arrests and brutal repression of civil society, or about the refusal of most leading Western countries to recognize him as head of state.

However, another fragment of this speech shows that Lukashenka has no intention of retiring: “If they impose a little war on us, what elections?

Where would I go?

I will take a machine gun and go at the front if necessary.

Although that is not right: the president has a designated place as commander-in-chief.

I will act… If everything is quiet, good, if our people live and develop peacefully, then at any time.

I will be on the siding: if you say I should help with something, I will help.”

Following the example of his Russian partners in the so-called “Union State,” Alexander Lukashenka accused the West of attempting to overthrow the authorities in Belarus through “colour revolutions”: “In August 2020 an attempt was made to interrupt forever the evolution of the Belarusian nation.

A free Belarus did not fit into the plans of geostrategists in the West.”

According to Lukashenka, Western countries allocated more than $6 billion to “destabilize the situation in the country,” while the detention of three dozen Russians during the election campaign, it turns out, was a “US provocation” that Minsk still has to deal with.

Lukashenka also attacked Belarus’s closest neighbours from among the members of the Euro-Atlantic community.

Thus, he said that Lithuania, which has given shelter to a large number of opponents of the current Minsk regime, should be spoken to “harshly, but pragmatically.”

And if “Vilnius, together with other Baltic states, unleashes a war, that will be the end of their statehood.”

Poland also came under attack; Lukashenka suspects it of intending to revive the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and become one of the largest European powers: “Something like this already happened in history 80 years ago, when Poland, together with Nazi Germany, took part in the partition of Czechoslovakia.

And today it is already looking at us through the sights.

They need all of Belarus, not only the Eastern Borderlands,” Alexander Lukashenka exclaimed, trying to revive the ridiculous speculations of some Russian ultra-nationalists.

Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute, sees nothing surprising in this. “This is the authorities’ general strategy: to create an external threat and justify any harsh measures aimed at limiting democracy.

And if we look at the text of his subsequent speech on the events of 2020, it says that all of this, the mass protest actions, came from outside.

All of this was prepared by the West in order to ‘seize and enslave’ us, and so on.

Therefore, it was logical for him to play on these emotions once again,” the Belarusian political scientist believes.

Lukashenka’s confused speech, in keeping with Soviet traditions, was repeatedly interrupted by “stormy, prolonged applause.”

Commenting on this fact, Kazakevich noted: “Belarusian society is diverse, but I do not think that most of Lukashenka’s words caused joy.

At least, it is not clear how what he said can improve people’s lives, and it is not clear how the promises he made can be fulfilled.”

According to the Voice of America interlocutor, at least one-third of Belarusians can now be counted among active opponents of the current regime, and if one includes everyone dissatisfied with the situation in Belarus, the figure is at least half of the population. “Therefore, positive emotions could have been evoked by what was said only among hardline supporters of Alexander Lukashenka; but even there I think that for the absolute majority of them this rhetoric is too aggressive.

It is aimed at intensifying domestic political mobilization, at fighting ‘enemies,’ while for many Belarusians these are friends, neighbours, relatives, and so on.

Therefore, a ‘feeling of deep satisfaction’ accompanied by ‘stormy, prolonged applause’ could have been experienced only by a small number of people from his entourage who benefited from the 2020 crisis,” Andrei Kazakevich believes.

During his speech on Thursday, Lukashenka stated that there would be no absorption of Belarus by Russia and that he and Putin would create “such a system that any unitary state would envy.”

The director of the Political Sphere Institute believes that there are currently not enough Russian troops in Belarus to carry out a full-fledged Anschluss. “In addition, this is a complex procedure from an economic point of view: introducing a common currency, distributing sovereign debts, and so on.

Therefore, it seems to me that, on the one hand, such a scenario is unlikely for a number of reasons, both domestic political and foreign political.

And second, it cannot be quick and is unlikely to be implemented in the near future.

For now we can observe two things: an increase in Russian influence in Belarus, primarily in the security sector.

And second, creeping integration, as it was articulated in autumn 2021 within the framework of the cooperation programme at the level of the ‘Union State,’ such as taxes and product labelling, increasing the number of levers of pressure that would help control Belarus and tie it to Russia.

And most likely this is exactly how it will be,” Andrei Kazakevich concluded his comment.

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