Has Lukashenka overplayed his hand? Belarus risks facing new sanctions from Ukraine and the West

What will follow from the Belarusian authorities’ recognition of the DPR and LPR, as well as from the use of their territory by Russian troops?

As of the evening of 23 March, Alexander Lukashenka continued to remain silent on the issue of recognising the independence of the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR, a step taken by Vladimir Putin.

On the morning of 24 March, Russia launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Putin stated that its goal was to protect the residents of Donbas, who “for eight years have been subjected to genocide by the Kyiv regime”.

According to him, Russia’s plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories, and he called the operation “self-defence against threats being created”.

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts how Lukashenka will act next and how the emerging situation will affect Belarus.
“Economic sanctions from Ukraine, as well as from the United States and the European Union, are possible”
The director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science Andrei Kazakevich, in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) (as of the evening of 23 February), noted that Russia moved to recognise the DPR and LPR because communication with the West had reached a dead end.

Photo: dw.com
“Russia’s move reduces the possibilities for strategic manoeuvre in the long term, since it unequivocally worsens its relations with Ukraine and other countries, and increases caution toward Moscow throughout the post-Soviet space (other states see themselves in Ukraine’s place).

But tactically, new opportunities are opening for Russia.

It can send troops onto the territory of the LPR and LPR, and it can demand that Ukrainian troops leave the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, two-thirds of which are controlled by Kyiv,” Kazakevich believes.

How will Lukashenka act in the situation that has arisen?
“The question of whether he will recognise the DPR and LPR remains open.

This step would be associated with certain problems.

Recognition of the separatist republics will lead to a serious deterioration of relations with Ukraine; a rupture of diplomatic relations is possible, and economic sanctions by Kyiv are possible.

And, secondly, the United States and the European Union may introduce new sanctions against Belarus.

This would mean additional financial losses.

In addition, this decision will be received coldly in the post-Soviet space, and Minsk’s foreign-policy isolation will only intensify.

On the international arena, Belarus will increasingly be perceived less as a subject with which direct negotiations should be conducted, and more as a case where issues must first be coordinated with Moscow,” Kazakevich noted.

What will happen to the Russian troops remaining on the territory of Belarus after the completion of the “Union Resolve” exercises?
“The main issue here will not be the fact of Russia’s recognition of the DPR and LPR, but whether the situation in the region escalates further.

If Russia moves toward escalation, then with a high degree of probability the troops will remain — as an additional mechanism of pressure on Ukraine and Europe,” Kazakevich said.

Read in full (https://udf.name/news/main_news/239860-lukashenko-doigralsja-belarus-riskuet-okazatsja-pod-novymi-sankcijami-ukrainy-i-zapada.html)