UDF: Putin rubs his hands: Lukashenka is driving himself into a corner with illegal migrants

“The mechanism ‘Putin said it — Lukashenka did it’ does not work”
Director of the Political Sphere Institute and doctor of political science Andrei Kazakevich noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that, despite accusations against Moscow, no direct evidence of its active involvement in creating the migration crisis has been provided.

Photo: dw.com
“What we can see for certain so far is that Russia is providing some limited cover for the Belarusian authorities at the international level.

But it is not yet possible to claim that Moscow itself organized the channel with the flow of illegal migrants, or at least actively participates in it,” Kazakevich said.

Earlier, European leaders essentially asked Vladimir Putin to help resolve the migration crisis by putting pressure on Lukashenka’s regime.

Why is he not doing this — because he does not want to or because he cannot?
“First, this crisis does not affect Russia’s vital interests.

Therefore, it is difficult to expect major activity from Moscow on this issue.

Second, the mechanism ‘Putin said it — Lukashenka did it’ does not work.

Bilateral relations are much more complex.

To achieve what it wants, Russia has to use a set of measures,” Kazakevich noted.

The political analyst leans toward the view that Moscow has taken a soft position toward Minsk.
“Perhaps the request to resolve the migration crisis was relayed, perhaps Moscow spoke in favor of making the channel with illegal migrants less problematic and less irritating for the region.

But at the same time Russia does not want to sacrifice any of its interests in Belarus in order to resolve a crisis that concerns the European Union,” Kazakevich believes.

In his view, it is difficult to predict how the migration crisis will develop further, because everything depends on the will of one person.
“This situation is largely irrational: Lukashenka cannot get anything from Europe through such actions.

On the other hand, he also cannot retreat: that would be a sign of weakness.

Most likely, in the near future the authorities will not abandon pressure in the form of flows of illegal migrants.

At least until the fifth package of sanctions is adopted: Minsk believes that in this way it can obtain a more favorable decision for itself,” Kazakevich said.

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