Europe will not betray its values when communicating with Lukashenka

Political scientists explained why the Belarusian regime will not be able to achieve much from the EU.

Migrants from Iraq continue to remain on the territory of Belarus, despite repeated attempts to break through into Poland.

The authorities placed some of them in a logistics center near Bruzgi, where food and clothing were delivered to them.

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell continues to insist that the migrants will not enter EU territory.
On 17 November, Angela Merkel again spoke by phone with Alexander Lukashenka.

The German government explained:
“In order to find humanitarian solutions.

For example, to ensure access to migrants for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.”

The German government stated that it does not recognize Lukashenka’s legitimacy as president of Belarus, but considers negotiations with him necessary in order to provide humanitarian assistance to migrants.

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts whether a compromise between the parties is possible.
“If the authorities do not reformulate their demands, it is difficult to expect a change in the EU’s position”
The director of the Political Sphere Institute and doctor of political science Andrei Kazakevich noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that he sees no contradiction between Borrell’s statements and Merkel’s behavior.

Photo: svaboda.org
“Judging by everything, the first communication between Merkel and Lukashenka took place in the mode of information exchange, that is, it was not negotiations.

I think Merkel sees her mission as understanding the position of official Minsk first-hand,” Kazakevich said (this happened before Merkel’s second communication with Lukashenka, UDF (https://udf.name/)).

How might events develop further?
“It seems to me that it will be very difficult to find a compromise.

Because the Belarusian authorities’ demands are: first, recognition of Lukashenka’s legitimacy; second, cancellation of sanctions.

But the non-recognition of Lukashenka was connected with the falsification of the presidential election results, and simply removing this issue, even because of a border conflict, is very difficult.

In essence, this would mean betraying one’s values, the values on which European policy is built.

The same applies to sanctions, which were introduced for human rights violations and violations of the security of EU citizens,” Kazakevich believes.
“If there is no progress on these issues precisely from Minsk’s side, I do not think it will be able to change anything through the migration crisis.

If the Belarusian authorities do not reformulate their demands, it is difficult to expect a change in the EU’s position, at least in the near future.”

This means that the situation on the border will “grow moldy.”
“Perhaps with the onset of frost the intensity of the migration crisis will decrease.

Its acuteness will decrease,” Kazakevich noted.

Will the situation with migrants on Belarusian territory undermine the loyalty of Lukashenka’s supporters?
“Loyalty to him is built on other factors.

For example, many are receiving new positions.

But this situation will have a greater effect on those who are wavering and who see the inadequate actions of the authorities,” Kazakevich believes.

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