“Carrying Out Such an Operation Amid Mobilization Is Almost Unrealistic.” An Expert Assesses the Probability of a Russian Attack on Ukraine

So what is the probability that Russia will launch a military invasion of Ukraine?

And why would it need this at all?

We asked an expert
According to political analyst Andrei Kazakevich, overall the information published by CBS and Military Times looks like a “trial balloon” aimed at testing the reaction of the public and political institutions.
— It is clear that if such information becomes public, then the likelihood of an attack or any other active steps by Russia drops to zero.

Carrying out such an operation in a situation of mobilization is almost unrealistic.

Nothing can be ruled out, but I do not think Russia can currently afford such large-scale actions.

This would provoke not only a response from Ukraine’s military forces, but also an extremely negative reaction from the West and, possibly, from a significant part of Russians themselves.

The result could be significant military losses, new economic sanctions, foreign-policy isolation, and the disruption of all foreign-policy initiatives, including in the sphere of Eurasian integration, for many years to come.

Most importantly, it is completely unclear what occupying only part of Ukraine could give Russia.

This does not solve any strategic problems, as the situation in Donbas has shown, Kazakevich believes.

In addition, in his view, such actions are unlikely to be supported by the Russian population, which, according to studies, is more concerned about domestic social and economic problems than about the foreign-policy situation around Russia.
— One could take such a step only in conditions of extreme necessity.

For example, it could be justified only by some active actions on Ukraine’s part, such as repression against Russians or Russian-speakers, a domestic political crisis in Russia, when an external action could be used to divert attention, accelerated preparations for Ukraine’s accession to NATO, and other pretexts.

However, we do not see anything of the kind now, the political analyst adds.

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