“Europe Has United.” Will Lukashenka Resort to New “Migration Blackmail” Against the EU?

For his part, the director of the Political Sphere Institute, Andrei Kazakevich, assessing the overall situation with the crisis, noted that the Belarusian authorities seem to be coming to understand that the goals they initially set remain unattainable. Europe has united and now, more than ever before, has a consolidated position on Belarus. Andrei Kazakevich
In his view, Minsk primarily wanted to secure a suspension of Europe’s sanctions policy toward Belarus, as well as recognition of Lukashenka as the legitimate leader of the country. “As a result of the crisis, everything happened exactly the opposite,” the Voice of America interlocutor emphasized. “Europe has united and now, more than ever before, has a consolidated position on Belarus.

There are, in principle, no signs that anything can be extracted from the European Union by force.”

At the same time, the continuation of the crisis is creating significant costs for Minsk, Andrei Kazakevich argues.

As he sees it, this also concerns growing domestic tension in the republic: “Migrants have become conspicuous in many cities.

And attitudes toward them are predominantly negative.

This gives people an additional reason for dissatisfaction with the authorities.

In addition, Minsk faces tangible financial losses, especially if relations with neighboring countries and Europe as a whole continue to deteriorate.

Poland, in particular, has already warned that it may completely close its border and take a number of other steps.

This could seriously affect the Belarusian economy.” The migration crisis gives the Kremlin another lever of influence over the situation in the region.

And, of course, it will use this mechanism. Andrei Kazakevich
The overall tension along the border perimeter and in the zone of direct contact between Polish, Lithuanian, and Belarusian security forces is also increasing, continued the director of the Political Sphere Institute.

According to him, this is fraught with the risk that the situation could get out of control at any moment.
“The foreign-policy isolation of Belarus is also deepening.

All of this together creates a situation in which the most rational step for the Belarusian authorities would be to begin de-escalating the conflict.

Although, perhaps, Minsk may still make some attempts to exert pressure on Europe.

As a result, Minsk is becoming even more dependent on Moscow.

Let us not forget that it was already extremely dependent on Moscow before, but the migration crisis itself gives the Kremlin another lever of influence over the situation in the region.

And, of course, it will use this mechanism,” Andrei Kazakevich concluded.

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