The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly is only a fallback option for Lukashenka; he hopes for another presidency

In an interview with RIA Novosti, Alexander Lukashenka said that he does not rule out holding early presidential elections after the adoption of the updated Constitution, but expressed doubt that they could take place as early as next summer.
“No.

No, that will become clear.

We have about three years until the presidential election, or four,” said the head of Belarus.

Alexander Lukashenka also said that he does not intend to leave big politics, and stated that he has not yet decided whether he will take part in the next presidential election; it depends on the situation in the country.

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts whether Lukashenka will be able to implement his plan.
“Overall, Moscow will be able to get what it wants”
Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and doctor of political science, noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that the tactics of the country’s leader will remain the same in the coming years.

Photo: svaboda.org
“The regime will try to extinguish expressions of discontent in the country and will wait for favorable political and economic conditions.

That is, in effect, the authorities are not going to change anything,” Kazakevich said.

Will Lukashenka manage to stay in his post until the next presidential election, which he is planning in three to four years?
“The question is open.

There are currently quite a lot of political and economic challenges.

Internal tension in Belarus persists, and different forms of expressing disagreement continue to exist,” Kazakevich noted.

How might Lukashenka’s relations with Russia develop in the coming years?
“Further concessions from the regime should probably be expected.

Moreover, I think they will depend not on what Lukashenka agrees to, but on what Russia is prepared to take.

For example, whether it is ready to build a military base on the territory of Belarus is actually not such a simple question; it requires certain investments from Moscow and would provoke an unpredictable response from Western countries,” Kazakevich believes.

He gave another example:
“Probably now, taking into account Lukashenka’s weakness, the Russian leadership has the strength to put pressure on him and introduce a single currency.

But again, this would entail serious financial costs for Russia itself.

Overall, however, I think Moscow will be able to obtain from the Belarusian authorities what it wants.”

Especially since the regime itself continues to create the conditions for this.
“Lukashenka does not want to carry out political reforms; he is simply dragging out the situation.

Consequently, the country will continue to face uncertainty and will continue to have a weak leader who cannot solve either foreign-policy or economic problems.

This will give Russia a great deal of space for influence,” Kazakevich believes.

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