Kazakevich: In Russia’s game against Ukraine, the Belarusian authorities are not assigned a major role

What is happening in relations between Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus increasingly resembles less and less the relations of “brotherly peoples,” and increasingly features aggressive rhetoric and demonstrations of who is siding with whom.

European politicians and media are discussing the possibility of a Russian military invasion of Ukraine.

Alexander Lukashenka called (https://www.belta.by/president/view/lukashenko-plany-nato-v-regione-nepriemlemy-ne-tolko-dlja-rossii-no-i-dlja-belarusi-473322-2021/) these reports a fake invented by the West: “They need a pretext to beat Russia.

So they have attached this label.

Although no one in Russia is going to attack Ukraine.”

At the same time, shortly before this, the Belarusian ruler openly stated that if “they again unleash a little war in Donbas or somewhere on the border with Russia,” Belarus would not stand aside, and it was clear whose ally it would be.

How dangerous is the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and what role can Alexander Lukashenka play in it? Salidarnasts asked Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and doctor of political science, about this.
– It seems to me that there are no grounds for seriously saying that there will be an invasion.

This topic is being escalated, but in my view, this is more likely in order to probe the situation: Moscow is testing whether, in connection with a potential threat, it can put forward some new conditions of its own and place the West in a difficult position, making it clear that Russia must be reckoned with.

Kazakevich noted that it is obvious that an attack is not carried out when everyone is talking about it.
– An attack, conditionally speaking, by Russia against Ukraine, would happen when it is not expected, not when everyone, including the likely adversary, is mobilized and prepared for something of this kind to happen.

Such an invasion, if it happens in reality, would mean a catastrophe for Russia, including militarily, because in any case, even if the operation is successful in terms of achieving certain goals, seizing territory, and so on, there would be many casualties.

Plus unpleasant economic consequences.

Moreover, it is obvious that Russian public opinion is now not as focused on foreign policy as it was seven or eight years ago; social problems have become more important, and such an operation could only do harm.

Therefore, in my view, Russia is not in such a strong position as to carry out such an operation: both from the point of view of the economy, where everything is rather difficult, and from the point of view of foreign policy.

Besides, all of this is already being debated, which further reduces the likelihood of an invasion.

If one can speak of some kind of attack on Ukraine in the near future, the analyst says, then it is more likely that this attack will be hybrid in nature, that is, not using Russian Federation troops, but combining information attacks, provocations by radicals, actions by the LNR/DNR, and similar moves.
– I do not think that in these games the Belarusian authorities are assigned a large and fixed role, says Andrei Kazakevich. In my view, Lukashenka’s statements are to a greater extent his own initiative.

Because it is very important for him to show that he is a reliable ally of Russia and is ready to lend a shoulder, so that he too will be given support, money, and some other form of assistance.

This is, in general, the standard strategy of the Belarusian authorities: essentially give nothing, but receive help in exchange for beautiful words.

In general, Belarus can be used by Russia to exert pressure on Ukraine.

First, the front itself is expanding.

Second, if earlier an invasion from Belarus was considered unlikely, now the likelihood is much higher.

At least there are no political obstacles to this.

One can also expect the implementation through Belarus of so-called hybrid security threats and destabilization at the border.

Moreover, it has already been voiced that the flow of migrants could be directed toward Ukraine, or narcotics and other means could be used.

The mechanisms that were previously used against Poland and Lithuania can also be launched against Ukraine.

In addition, there could be a rupture of cooperation along various lines, above all those related to supplies of dual-use products.

Such supplies have apparently already been reduced, but they can probably be brought under even tighter control.

The severing of economic ties, the political scientist notes, would also further weaken Ukraine, for which Belarusian gasoline and petroleum products are important strategic goods.

However, activating such mechanisms would hit the economies of both countries, so it cannot be stated unequivocally that the deterioration of relations will reach this stage.
– In your view, will anything change in this palette after today’s talks between Putin and Biden?
– My feeling is that no.

The maximum that can be expected from this meeting is a certain de-escalation if the sides agree on some rules: for example, that the United States does not increase its presence in Ukraine and the Russians do not increase theirs in Belarus, or that it will be declared that no new military bases will be opened by either side.

It is probably more rational simply to expect a coordination of positions.

Identifying the problems and briefly discussing them may at least reduce the rhetoric and lead people to stop speaking in the categories of a hot war or a global conflict across the entire region.

If the rhetoric of hot war is reduced to the rhetoric of cold war, that in itself would already be a good result.

But I would not expect anything more: normalization of relations between the West and Russia would probably require a much longer path than this one meeting.

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