Kazakevich: “Belarus May Not Reach a Nazarbayev-Style Transition”

The political scientist on how the Kazakhstani events may adjust constitutional reform.

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who only recently was considered a temporary president of Kazakhstan, is strengthening his position (https://gazetaby.com/post/oreshkin-tot-kto-kontroliruet-silovoj-resurs-tot-i/182539/) as the country’s real leader.

Political scientist Andrei Kazakevich told Filin (https://gazetaby.media/category/filin/) what adjustments the Kazakhstani events may introduce into the constitutional reform in Belarus.
— Tokayev appointed “his own” person as head of government, the very person whom Nazarbayev did not allow into the same post a year ago.

In addition, he publicly criticized the former president for the emergence of oligarchs in the country.

Now they will pay annual contributions to a people’s fund.

Can one imagine a situation in Belarus in which the nomenklatura, tired of Lukashenka’s many years of rule, would effectively surrender him at a convenient moment?
— Practice shows that as soon as a situation of dual power emerges, tensions begin to grow between two centers.

Although the outcomes here can be different.

Take the same example of Putin and Medvedev in Russia, when the latter was president of the country from 2008 to 2012.

There were tensions and certain problems, and that is only what was on the surface, while much we simply do not know.

In the end, that castling move nevertheless went successfully and did not lead to a split in the elite.

But this is rather an exception, which requires great effort and skills from those who find themselves in such a situation.

For Lukashenka, such a state of affairs would be very difficult, since he is accustomed to one-man rule.

He is extremely suspicious and trusts no one from his entourage.

And if the transition process is launched, he will react very painfully to any manifestations of independence by his possible successor.

But the more the new leader becomes immersed in the business of governing, the more he will try to shake off limitations.

In other words, conflicts of this kind are possible.

On the other hand, we are not even at this stage yet.

And in principle, it may not come to this type of transition at all.
— There is still time to discuss the draft updated Constitution.

Can the authorities, “at the numerous requests” (https://gazetaby.com/post/tavaryshy-zaxouvace-spakoj/182525/) of Belarusians, postpone or even cancel the transition process?
— The authorities did not have any particular desire to change anything in the first place.

And even if we take the most radical variants of political reform proposed by the authorities, they were in any case very vague in terms of implementation timelines.

If we look at the draft put forward for discussion, it does not envisage any substantial changes before new presidential elections are held.

And that is four years.

I think the authorities will, as far as possible, postpone the process of political change, while blurring it as much as possible.

The events in Kazakhstan will be used as an additional argument for this.

It may turn out that instead of a new president and chair of the Presidium of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, these positions will be held by one person.

Yes, there is uncertainty in the new draft Constitution about how possible such a combination of offices will be in the long term.

During the discussion, this point can be blurred even further, stripping it of specificity.

To sum up, the authorities will most likely blur and postpone the transition process rather than simply discard the very idea of reform.

Source (https://gazetaby.com/post/kazakevich-do-tranzita-po-nazarbaevski-v-belarusi-/182543/)