Exercises on the Border with Ukraine: Lukashenka Plays Putin’s Game

Why did Belarus and Russia need unscheduled exercises?

Ahead of the unscheduled Union Resolve exercises with Russian troops, scheduled for 10–20 February in Belarus, Alexander Lukashenka spoke several times about threats from Ukraine.

First, he stated:
“Ukraine continues to build up forces, concentrating units of the National Guard made up of nationalist radicals.

This is even worse than NATO servicemen.

And all of this is in the immediate vicinity of our country’s state border.”

The Security Service of Ukraine denied this information.

Then, while speaking with the military, the Belarusian leader said:
“With pain in our hearts, we are watching everything that is happening in Ukraine.

Its current political leadership, being under external control, sometimes behaves unpredictably and inadequately.

Therefore, for this case of unpredictability and inadequacy, and in case, God forbid, of military action, we need to make up our minds.”

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts what explains Lukashenka’s bellicose rhetoric.
“I do not think that a direct military clash on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is possible”
Director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science Andrei Kazakevich noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that the Belarusian leader is playing along with Moscow.

Photo: dw.com
“In a situation of escalating relations between Russia and Ukraine, Lukashenka is playing Putin’s game by opening an additional front.

Russia wants the Belarusian authorities to act out its scenario in the confrontation with the West.

At the same time, Lukashenka wants to use this situation for domestic political purposes.

Lukashenka is heightening an atmosphere of fear, wants to show that he has a strong ally in the form of Russia, wants to put pressure on Ukraine on old issues, and wants to show the West: because of your position toward me, instead of a relatively neutral country you have received practically a Russian foothold.

This narrative is being worked through in state media and by pro-government experts,” Kazakevich said.

Are the upcoming exercises in Belarus only psychological pressure on Ukraine and the West, or can they be used in another way?
“I think an armed conflict is still unlikely.

It is mainly psychological pressure.

If some kind of confrontation is possible, it would be in the format of hybrid influence.

I do not think that a direct military clash on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is possible,” Kazakevich believes.

And what about the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine as a whole?
“I think the situation is similar to what was said about the exercises in Belarus: in my view, Russia is not currently in a position to begin active military operations.

The West, first, is prepared, and second, is consolidated, with a degree of consolidation unprecedented for many years.

It will be extremely difficult for Russia to come out of a possible conflict without losing.

I think this is the main restraining factor for it,” Kazakevich believes.