“He Does Not Want to End Up in a Cage with a Tiger.” Why Lukashenka’s Negotiations with Russia and the West May Look Ridiculous

Alexander Lukashenka stated at a meeting of the Security Council that Belarus’s position should also be heard in negotiations on a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.
“We proceed not from the fact that we have been put into one basket with Russia.

No.

We proceed from the fact that this war is just beyond the fence of our country.

And it has a very serious impact on the situation in Belarus.

Therefore, there can be no separate agreements behind Belarus’s back.

And I am absolutely convinced, and I know, that Russia understands this position,” the Belarusian leader said.

Later, Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei explained that the Belarusian authorities want security guarantees to be provided not only for Ukraine and Russia, but also for Belarus.

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts what Alexander Lukashenka is actually seeking and what Russia’s and Ukraine’s reaction to his proposal will be.
“The message of the Belarusian authorities is directed primarily westward and southward”
Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science, noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that the Belarusian authorities are trying to restore their subjectivity.

Photo: dw.com
“I think that, at this stage, their statements are above all an attempt to attract attention.

The Belarusian authorities tried to become mediators in the conflict or at least to have negotiations held on their territory.

That is, they tried to repeat the success of 2014.

But now they have completely dropped out of the agenda.

The view has become entrenched in the international community that Belarus does not conduct an independent policy; some opposition politicians have even stated that the country is occupied by Russia.

The statements by the Belarusian authorities are a step aimed at returning to the agenda.

They want their interests to be taken into account,” Kazakevich said.

Could it be beneficial for Ukraine and Russia for Belarus to take part in negotiations on the post-war settlement?
“It could be beneficial for Ukraine.

And, probably, the message from the Belarusian authorities is directed primarily westward and southward.

Certain guarantees for Belarus’s independence could mean a more friendly regime for Ukraine and the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory,” Kazakevich believes.

He added:
“Much in the reaction to the authorities’ proposal will depend on the details: what is meant by guarantees for Belarus?

Which countries will assume obligations, and what will those obligations consist of?”