“These Ideas Are Circulating in the Kremlin, But…” What Keeps Putin from Annexing Belarus

How likely is the scenario of holding a referendum in Belarus on a “merger” with Russia?

The well-known and authoritative outlet Meduza reported that, according to its sources, the Kremlin is preparing referendums on the accession to Russia of the self-proclaimed “DPR,” “LPR,” Kherson region, and South Ossetia.

The vote may take place on 11 September.

Moreover, Meduza’s sources do not rule out that a plebiscite on a “merger” with Russia could be held in Belarus within the same timeframe:
“But only if Lukashenka can be pressured into it, since he is doing everything he can to avoid such a scenario.”

UDF (https://udf.name/) asked experts how they assess the likelihood of the scenario described.
“Annexing a country of nine million people is a very risky undertaking”
Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Science, noted in a comment to UDF (https://udf.name/) that there are many obstacles preventing Russia from deciding to annex Belarus.

Photo: dw.com
“Although I think such ideas are, of course, circulating in the Kremlin.

But there are too many obstacles connected with this.

The question is not only whether Lukashenka will be removed from power or not, although the Kremlin has enough levers of pressure on him.

The question is, above all, how Belarusian citizens would react.

After all, Russia would have to somehow ensure the required result in the referendum and its legitimacy.

And the prospect of becoming a subject of Russia on the level of Tatarstan would cause shock and resistance not only among citizens, but also among the entire ruling class apart from Lukashenka,” Kazakevich said.

The second category of obstacles is related to the economy.
“Annexing Belarus would be a very expensive undertaking; Russia would have to pay a great deal.

And given the costs of the war, future costs of rebuilding the occupied territories, and the impact of sanctions, annexing a country of nine million people is a very risky undertaking.

It should also be taken into account that many of Belarus’s economic ties with other countries would be destroyed.

It will not be easy for Russia to digest and hold an entire country in Eastern Europe,” Kazakevich believes.

The political scientist’s conclusion:
“Annexing Belarus is a much more complex process requiring far greater effort than annexing the self-proclaimed republics.

It is difficult to imagine that they might try to carry this out already in September.

I think that under conditions of an ongoing war, Russia is currently not in a position to undertake such large-scale actions.”

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