Is It Possible to Lift Sanctions Against Belarus in Exchange for the Transit of Ukrainian Grain?

Regional media recently drew attention to reports about negotiations between United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres and representatives of Minsk.

The talks concerned the possibility of transporting Ukrainian grain by rail through the territory of Belarus, with subsequent delivery to the port of Klaipėda.

According to available information, Alexander Lukashenka agrees to provide such transit in order to “save countries dependent on Ukrainian grain imports from looming famine,” but only in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian enterprises.

Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Political Sphere Institute, states that Alexander Lukashenka is doing everything he can to secure the lifting of sanctions, something that, incidentally, is also indicated by the official Belarusian press. “For the possibility of grain transit, the Belarusian authorities should receive an easing of sanctions and some additional bonuses, for example in the form of compensation for losses from the confiscation of property in Ukraine.

In principle, if we proceed from what we hear from officials and experts close to the authorities, this is more of a conversation from a position of strength.

There is not even any mention of political prisoners in this case, and at the UN level this issue probably cannot be raised — only at the level of the EU and the United States,” he noted in a conversation with a correspondent of the Russian Service of Voice of America.

As for António Guterres’s dialogue with the Lukashenka regime, in the political scientist’s view, the task of the UN Secretary-General is merely to demonstrate his involvement in resolving the food crisis. “And decisions of this kind, such as lifting sanctions, are being lobbied by Russia.

Belarusian diplomatic agencies are also working with African countries and countries of Latin America, which in recent weeks have also been active in promoting this agenda.

Therefore, Guterres’s position is to find some kind of solution to the food crisis.

And it is not so important to him what losses Belarusian society will suffer or what losses there will be for Ukraine.

The main thing is to resolve the grain issue,” Andrei Kazakevich believes.

Following Pavel Latushka, he emphasizes that the transit of Ukrainian grain through Belarus is not something fundamental and does not solve anything, since no more than 10% of the available volume could be transported this way, and it would become an additional means of pressure on Kyiv. “Moreover, this mechanism would appear in the hands of both Lukashenka and Moscow, since at any moment, if they consider it expedient, they could stop these deliveries.

This is evidently why the scheme did not arouse much enthusiasm among the Ukrainian leadership,” the director of the Political Sphere Institute concludes.

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